THREAD: So what would might be expect from Iran as a cyber threat in the weeks ahead? Follow along to sound smart about the "CYBERZ." ....
(Much of Iran's history online I explored much with John Carlin in our cyber book, DAWN OF THE CODE WAR. Read more here if you want more details: amazon.com/Dawn-Code-War-… )
1) Iran is one of the world's most capable cyber actors, with a long history of using cyber's asymmetric nature to advance its own strategic objectives....
2) One key tenet of cyberspace: Countries online act a lot like they do offline. They pursue the same goals in the virtual world that they do in the physical world....
3) For Iran, that's meant targeting regional adversaries, like Israel and Saudi Arabia, and stealing technologies and IP that helps it circumvent sanctions and export controls....
4) Most people don't know Iran actually launched the first destructive cyberattack ever against the US, attacking Sheldon Adelson's casinos. That attack caused perhaps $40 *million* in damages.
5) Iran overall is probably second only to Russia in terms of its record of destructive attacks, which also includes the massive Shamoon attack against Saudi Aramco, which also caused millions in damages and destroyed 35,000 computers. ....
6) Iran also often pairs its asymmetric cyber attacks as responses to US actions. US levels sanctions and turns up economic pressures? Iran turned around and hit US banks in 2012-2013 with a year-long DDoS attack, causing outages and inconveniencing customers....
7) The financial DDoS attack was a perfect asymmetric attack—it targeted a weak point in the US financial system without causing the type of operational damage to a bank/Wall Street that might provoke the US to escalate. ....
8) Iran's also probed US critical infrastructure; the same hackers who targeted the DDoS attack also hacked the Bowman Dam in Rye, New York. It's the only time the US has brought charges against a foreign hacker for targeting critical infrastructure. ....
9) Iran is also increasingly exploring information operations. It's learning from Russia and has long realized the potential of the internet to track and target political opposition too....
10) Iran was (likely) behind a major breach on DigiNotar, a Dutch security certificate company, which allowed Iran to mimic sites from AOL to Gmail to CIA.gov and target dissidents ....
11) We've seen Iran do some really interesting economic espionage and IP theft, including a major DOJ case alleging $3 billion in theft from hundreds of universities: .... wired.com/story/iran-cyb…
12) (One Iranian hacker was even extradited to my hometown of Burlington, VT, to face charges of stealing proprietary military technology from a defense contractor here.) ....
13) In short, Iran's options are expansive—and its track record in cyberspace is extensive. So far everything it's done has always stayed below the threshold of open war or an attack that would prompt retaliation by the US. Will that hold true now? /END
