Thread by @rezoshm

@skewdotcom We have discussed this with our team, and we think its not right to talk about connection of BTC options having #halving priced in or not. For several reasons:

@skewdotcom Open interest on options on Deribit currently is a bit over 40k contracts overall. Its a very small amount. The interest was always speculative. For example in December Put/Call ratio was almost 40 to 1. Now, after Dec expiration, its closer to 2 to 1 (more calls) the reason for

@skewdotcom ... such skew back then (40 to 1) - was the 3х price appriciation back in April... we had Dec options with strikes above 30k ... so, we had curve bending both in time and in strikes.

Now is normal, which means general market is using options for its purpose. maybe not because..

@skewdotcom ... BTC options are still too little traded. we do not know what is normal and what is not for the cryptocurrency options market..

there are very few large players in the option market and almost no hedgers. So we would not recommend taking option market data too seriously yet.

@skewdotcom Volatility itself is not a reliable indicator of future movements. Take any index - before all the strong declines - the volatility is always minimal and grows with the movement. So when BTC explodes next time, volatility will grow rapidly, especially on call options, and the...

@skewdotcom ... the temporary structure will become curved again.

One last thing: the June options just started trading. Obviously, closer to the event, open interest and volatility will increase, it's just too early to talk about it. Why would someone buy options now, their price will ..

@skewdotcom depreciate many times closer to date... the time curve is likely to become inverted altogether - Because right before halving closer options will rise in price, reflecting the demand for protection from instant movement.