Thread by @Tracinski

Time for some game theory....

Well, kind of sort of. Here's how I'm looking at the 2020 primaries and general election. There are four realistic possibilities. Let me rank them from worst outcome to best. 1/

Worst outcome: Dems nominate the moderate candidate, Biden, who loses to Trump in the general. This is the worst because it emboldens Trump and the nationalist wing of the right, while also emboldening the radical left, who get to say "we told you so." Worst of both worlds.

Slightly better outcome: Dems nominate radical "progressive" like Bernie, who loses to Trump. Trump and the nationalists get validation for their conceit of being the only alternative to socialism. But Dem moderates are also emboldened--not that I expect much from them. 3/

Better still, though this might take some convincing: Dems nominate a radical, who beats Trump. Radical left gets validation and power--but not enough, probably, to get much of what they want. Trump/nationalists suffer catastrophic loss of credibility. 4/

In this case, Trump isn't the guy who saves us from socialism. He/s the guy who hastens it. But maybe I'm being optimistic, and instead the GOP will come up with a stab-in-the-back myth and dig in deeper, like the Corbynites in the UK. And Pres. Bernie would be truly awful. 5/

But the best outcome is more like this: Dems nominate Biden, who beats Trump. The moderate Dems are validated, while the Trumpist right is discredited. 6/

President Biden won't have a mandate for radicalism, given how he's campaigning as the voice of reason telling Dems why they can't have everything they want. And Trump would look more like an aberration and not like the Vox Populi, giving the right an opportunity to recover. 7/

I don't list this as what I'm advocating, because I don't think I'm going to sway the results, certainly not in primaries (which the GOP has basically decided to get rid of). I'm just looking at this in terms of what outcomes I would be most/least despondent over. Discuss. 8/8