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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
Iβll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
Iβll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Ξ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-β¦
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Ξ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-β¦
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03
We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.
AP calls GOP primary for red #MO04 for Mark Alford, a former TV anchor in Kansas City.
π§΅π»π―πΉπ¬π¨π«: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support πππππππ ππππ‘πππ π€βπ πππππππ πππππ‘ππππ (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also π π’πππππ‘π πππππππ π€ππππ π€βπ πππ‘ πππππ‘ππππ ).
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! Itβs the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Last night, Arizona's independent redistricting commission advanced this finalist congressional map, which will now go to public comment: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
This map creates 5 π΄ seats, 2 π΅ seats, and 2 π£ seats. The median seat, David Schweikert's #AZ01, is pretty close to the statewide partisan lean, so Dems should be able to win 5/9 if they win statewide. But in a good GOP year, they could win 7/9. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
The map is not kind to Dem incumbents, though. Tom O'Halleran is pretty well screwed, as his #AZ02 becomes R+15. Greg Stanton's #AZ04 would also become a tossup. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-β¦
Woah. Kirkpatrick+10, Biden+11 seat in 2020. Going to be a different seat next year with redistricting of course, might even shed Cochise County and take in more Pima depending on how things go.
Of course on the other hand it might not change too much at all - these things are still in flux. I think regardless Dems are moderately favored here but the map is consequential.
House and Senate primaries are being held in 5 states today including in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington.
Arizona GOP Appointed-Senator Martha McSally faces primary challenger Daniel McCarthy today. Winner will likely face Democrat Mark Kelly in the fall election to serve out remainder of the late John McCainβs term until 2022. #AZSEN
In #AZ01, 2nd term Democratic Rep. Tom OβHalleran faces primary challenger former Flagstaff city councilwoman Eva Putzova.Republicans in the district will also elect nominee for the fall election today.O'Halleran won 2018 election to Flagstaff area House seat w/53.8% of the vote.
New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I canβt recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. cookpolitical.com/analysis/houseβ¦
(Hereβs a graphic corrected for #WA03)
I am, once more, a guest of the Pima County Republican Club. Here to listen to @kelliwardaz speak today, coming back to #Tucson after cancelling an appearance a few weeks ago.
Todayβs conversation - whether @kelliwardaz addresses it in her speech or during the question and answer session - is likely going to focus on Wardβs support to refer a sales tax increase to the ballot, letting the voters decide.
There is something new today here at the Pima County Republican Clubβs official meeting space at the Sabbar Shrine Temple - they opened up an adjacent room to accommodate more people. Itβs early, but there are easily 40 people here already to see @kelliwardaz.
#116th New Congress convenes soon!
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! πππ #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
‡οΈTHREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk‡οΈ
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! πππ #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
‡οΈTHREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk‡οΈ
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
Arizona #AZ02 #116thCongress
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick
kirkpatrickforcongress.com/issues/
@Ann_Kirkpatrick
"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."
THREAD
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick
kirkpatrickforcongress.com/issues/
@Ann_Kirkpatrick
"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."
THREAD
Arizona #AZ09 #AZ9 #116thCongress
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney
stantonforarizona.com/issues
@gregstantonaz
Instagram.com/gregstantonaz
facebook.com/gregstantonaz
THREAD
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney
stantonforarizona.com/issues
@gregstantonaz
Instagram.com/gregstantonaz
facebook.com/gregstantonaz
THREAD
π¨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
20 minutes
Pundits have traditionally written off Arizona as a reliable red state. Not anymore.
The #youthvote and Democratic candidates are fired up to bring change. #AZpol (1/6) NXTGN.US/fja
The #youthvote and Democratic candidates are fired up to bring change. #AZpol (1/6) NXTGN.US/fja
#AZGov: David Garcia has the chance to become Arizonaβs first Latinx governor in decades. He fights for immigrants, students, teachers, and all Arizonans.
NXTGN.US/fjb
NXTGN.US/fjb
#AZSen: Kyrsten Sinema rose from an impoverished upbringing to Congress. She is a strong advocate for reproductive rights and could become the first openly bisexual senator in U.S. history.
Hey #ARIZONA Hereβs a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018! with photos, Twitter & Websites
& VOTER INFO links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
#VoteBlueAZ
Register by October 9
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#AZ01 #AZ02 #AZ03 #AZ04 #AZ05 #AZ06 #AZ07 #AZ08 #AZ09
& VOTER INFO links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
#VoteBlueAZ
Register by October 9
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#AZ01 #AZ02 #AZ03 #AZ04 #AZ05 #AZ06 #AZ07 #AZ08 #AZ09
VOTER REGISTRATION in #ARIZONA:
Register to Vote Online here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/β¦
Check Registration here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Regiβ¦
Find Status of Provision Ballot here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Provβ¦
Find Polling Place here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Pollβ¦
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
Register to Vote Online here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/β¦
Check Registration here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Regiβ¦
Find Status of Provision Ballot here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Provβ¦
Find Polling Place here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Pollβ¦
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
Early Voting in #Arizona #PrimaryElection
Aug 1 - Aug 28
Register to be a permanent early voter here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/β¦
Application here: azsos.gov/sites/default/β¦
Mail to County Election Officials: azsos.gov/elections/votiβ¦
View Early Ballot status: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Abseβ¦
Aug 1 - Aug 28
Register to be a permanent early voter here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/β¦
Application here: azsos.gov/sites/default/β¦
Mail to County Election Officials: azsos.gov/elections/votiβ¦
View Early Ballot status: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Abseβ¦
Okay, #ARIZONA!
You're up for #primaryelection #Primaries! AUGUST 28, 2018!
Choose well and back who wins!
Hereβs a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018! w/ photos, Twitter & Websites & VOTER INFO links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
#VoteBlueAZ
You're up for #primaryelection #Primaries! AUGUST 28, 2018!
Choose well and back who wins!
Hereβs a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018! w/ photos, Twitter & Websites & VOTER INFO links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
#VoteBlueAZ
VOTER REGISTRATION in #ARIZONA:
Register to Vote Online here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/β¦
Check Registration here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Regiβ¦
Find Status of Provision Ballot here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Provβ¦
Find Polling Place here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Pollβ¦
Register to Vote Online here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/β¦
Check Registration here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Regiβ¦
Find Status of Provision Ballot here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Provβ¦
Find Polling Place here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Pollβ¦
Okay, no.π‘
Democrats, this is not who we are.
If @BlueWaveCS wasn't behind @Ann_Kirkpatrick before, we sure would be after this quote.
JFC.
#TuesdayThoughts
Democrats, this is not who we are.
If @BlueWaveCS wasn't behind @Ann_Kirkpatrick before, we sure would be after this quote.
JFC.
#TuesdayThoughts
Ridiculous and so disappointing.
It's much harder to put out Trump fires if people lighting fires from inside the Democratic tent.
#TakeItBack
#TuesdayThoughts
It's much harder to put out Trump fires if people lighting fires from inside the Democratic tent.
#TakeItBack
#TuesdayThoughts
"All she can think about is, 'What do I have to do to put that damnable little pin onto my lapel?' ... I understand it because I'VE HAD TO TREAT PEOPLE WITH METH ADDICTION" - #AZ02 Democrat @mattheinzmd on Dem primary rival @Ann_Kirkpatrick
ht @allymutnick
#TuesdayThoughts #AZ02
ht @allymutnick
#TuesdayThoughts #AZ02
