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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Ξ” Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022 Image
Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.
In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House. Image
Read 22 tweets
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65. ImageImage
Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000
Read 6 tweets
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs. ImageImage
Tonight's DCCC buys (1/2)

#PA07 $1,428,543
#ME02 $1,069,016
#CA13 $996,949
#PA17 $873,065
#VA07 $792,735
#CA49 $691,181
#NC13 $690,254
#MN02 $669,933
#TX34 $654,685
#IL17 $629,957
#AZ02 $598,373
#MI07 $587,659
#OR06 $564,579
#NM02 $451,682
#CT05 $418,141
#PA08 $408,710
Tonight's DCCC buys (2/2)

#OH13 $300,000
#NV03 $254,683
#NY18 $128,125
#NV04 $81,141
#NV01 $79,448
#TX28 $73,500
#OH01 $56,260
#OH09 $34,872
#AZ04 $32,375
Read 4 tweets
Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03
We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.
AP calls GOP primary for red #MO04 for Mark Alford, a former TV anchor in Kansas City.
Read 15 tweets
πŸ§΅π‘»π‘―π‘Ήπ‘¬π‘¨π‘«: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.

Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least 28 @NRCC-endorsed GOP challengers supported overturning #RoeVWade.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support π‘—π‘Žπ‘–π‘™π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘‘π‘œπ‘π‘‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘  π‘€β„Žπ‘œ π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘š π‘Žπ‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘  (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also π‘ π‘’π‘π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘  π‘—π‘Žπ‘–π‘™π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘€π‘œπ‘šπ‘’π‘› π‘€β„Žπ‘œ 𝑔𝑒𝑑 π‘Žπ‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘ ).
Read 16 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
Last night, Arizona's independent redistricting commission advanced this finalist congressional map, which will now go to public comment:…
This map creates 5 πŸ”΄ seats, 2 πŸ”΅ seats, and 2 🟣 seats. The median seat, David Schweikert's #AZ01, is pretty close to the statewide partisan lean, so Dems should be able to win 5/9 if they win statewide. But in a good GOP year, they could win 7/9.…
The map is not kind to Dem incumbents, though. Tom O'Halleran is pretty well screwed, as his #AZ02 becomes R+15. Greg Stanton's #AZ04 would also become a tossup.…
Read 3 tweets
Woah. Kirkpatrick+10, Biden+11 seat in 2020. Going to be a different seat next year with redistricting of course, might even shed Cochise County and take in more Pima depending on how things go.
Of course on the other hand it might not change too much at all - these things are still in flux. I think regardless Dems are moderately favored here but the map is consequential.
Kirkpatrick was elected in 2008 by flipping the very large #AZ01. She lost reelection to Gosar in 2010, but then won the redrawn #AZ01 in 2012 and 2014. She ran for Senate against McCain in 2016 and lost, and then moved to #AZ02, flipping the seat in 2018 and holding it in 2020.
Read 3 tweets
House and Senate primaries are being held in 5 states today including in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington.
Arizona GOP Appointed-Senator Martha McSally faces primary challenger Daniel McCarthy today. Winner will likely face Democrat Mark Kelly in the fall election to serve out remainder of the late John McCain’s term until 2022. #AZSEN
In #AZ01, 2nd term Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran faces primary challenger former Flagstaff city councilwoman Eva Putzova.Republicans in the district will also elect nominee for the fall election today.O'Halleran won 2018 election to Flagstaff area House seat w/53.8% of the vote.
Read 16 tweets
New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis.…
(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03)
Read 8 tweets
I am, once more, a guest of the Pima County Republican Club. Here to listen to @kelliwardaz speak today, coming back to #Tucson after cancelling an appearance a few weeks ago.
Today’s conversation - whether @kelliwardaz addresses it in her speech or during the question and answer session - is likely going to focus on Ward’s support to refer a sales tax increase to the ballot, letting the voters decide.
There is something new today here at the Pima County Republican Club’s official meeting space at the Sabbar Shrine Temple - they opened up an adjacent room to accommodate more people. It’s early, but there are easily 40 people here already to see @kelliwardaz.
Read 40 tweets
#116th New Congress convenes soon!
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! 🌊🌊🌊 #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
‡️THREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk‡️
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
Arizona #AZ02 #116thCongress
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick

"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."

Arizona #AZ09 #AZ9 #116thCongress
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney

Read 67 tweets
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07 #TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
Read 82 tweets
Pundits have traditionally written off Arizona as a reliable red state. Not anymore.

The #youthvote and Democratic candidates are fired up to bring change. #AZpol (1/6) NXTGN.US/fja
#AZGov: David Garcia has the chance to become Arizona’s first Latinx governor in decades. He fights for immigrants, students, teachers, and all Arizonans.
#AZSen: Kyrsten Sinema rose from an impoverished upbringing to Congress. She is a strong advocate for reproductive rights and could become the first openly bisexual senator in U.S. history.
Read 7 tweets
Hey #ARIZONA Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018! with photos, Twitter & Websites
& VOTER INFO links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Register by October 9
#AZ01 #AZ02 #AZ03 #AZ04 #AZ05 #AZ06 #AZ07 #AZ08 #AZ09
Register to Vote Online here:…
Check Registration here:…
Find Status of Provision Ballot here:…
Find Polling Place here:…

Early Voting in #Arizona #PrimaryElection
Aug 1 - Aug 28
Register to be a permanent early voter here:…
Application here:…
Mail to County Election Officials:…
View Early Ballot status:…
Read 19 tweets
You're up for #primaryelection #Primaries! AUGUST 28, 2018!
Choose well and back who wins!
Here’s a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018! w/ photos, Twitter & Websites & VOTER INFO links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Register to Vote Online here:…
Check Registration here:…
Find Status of Provision Ballot here:…
Find Polling Place here:…
Democratic Candidate for Arizona #AZ01 #AZ1
Tom O'Halleran
Read 19 tweets
Okay, no.😑

Democrats, this is not who we are.

If @BlueWaveCS wasn't behind @Ann_Kirkpatrick before, we sure would be after this quote.

Ridiculous and so disappointing.
It's much harder to put out Trump fires if people lighting fires from inside the Democratic tent.

"All she can think about is, 'What do I have to do to put that damnable little pin onto my lapel?' ... I understand it because I'VE HAD TO TREAT PEOPLE WITH METH ADDICTION" - #AZ02 Democrat @mattheinzmd on Dem primary rival @Ann_Kirkpatrick

ht @allymutnick
#TuesdayThoughts #AZ02
Read 3 tweets

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