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Coronavirus .... even at lower level of RO

A. RO @ 2.6 -2.9 (best sources)
B. "higher pandemic risk than SARS"
C. Contagious w/out symptoms - unlike SARS
D. Rapid increase of overseas cases
E. Countries need time to prepar

@WHO needs to declare this globally not just for CHI
@WHO Manufacturing hubs in China ordered to close facilities for at least 1 week per Financial Times.

zerohedge.com/markets/china-…
@WHO 🚨State Dept has issued🚨
Level 3 ORANGE High Risk Travel to China
Level 4 RED Absolutely Do Not Travel to Hubei the Wuhan province.

If you're in China, might leave before China doesn't allow departure or finds other reason to detain.

Read ALL info at the link.
#Coronavirus
@WHO 2 being tested for #Coronavirus in New Hampshire who recently visited Huwan, CHI and have developed symptoms.

Isolated somewhere in NH but no location offered by NH DHHS.

@NHMommy1

wbur.org/commonhealth/2…
@WHO @NHMommy1 Wife of 1st Coronavirus case in Canada tests positive w/ NO symptoms but is in isolation. Canada now testing 19 other patients. She is in her 50's.

Both had visited Wuhan and were on a flight from Guangzhou CHI to Toronto Jan 22.

@WHO @NHMommy1 Georgia Coronavirus @mizdonna

Health department will not release how many they are testing or monitoring. "cases"

mdjonline.com/news/potential…
@WHO @NHMommy1 @mizdonna Michigan update coronavirus
3 negative results and 1 possible in Washtenway County

patch.com/michigan/acros…
@WHO @NHMommy1 @mizdonna RO estimated at 2.9 ... average infected person sharing it with 3 more.

Li tells hospitals to admit patients and orders 2000 more nurses to Wuhan in 2 days and 20,000 more pairs of protective goggles.

2000 more nurses ... yes, typed that correctly.

scmp.com/news/china/soc…
@WHO @NHMommy1 @mizdonna Every province of China now has confirmed cases of coronavirus except Tibet.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7…
@WHO @NHMommy1 @mizdonna Dr. Toner of Johns Hopkins Center for Security Health -
‘Probably, the cat’s already out of the bag.’
Containment ineffective

⤴️Yes, he was part of the Event 201 simulation study. @realmajordan

2019-nCoV
Coronavirus

marketwatch.com/story/scientis…
@WHO @NHMommy1 @mizdonna @realmajordan
@WHO @NHMommy1 @mizdonna @realmajordan He RT'd w/ correction
@WHO @NHMommy1 @mizdonna @realmajordan CDC finally issues RED travel warning AFTER State Dept did earlier.

More on the page.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices…
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More from @Cara_TXZEAL see all

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Cara TXZEAL
@Cara_TXZEAL
🚨🚨🚨Powerful 7.7 #earthquake hits offshore near #Jamaica, #Cuba and #CaymenIslands in Caribbean approximately an hour ago and felt as far north as Miami, FL

6 miles deep

Tsunami warning for coastal areas of 1 meter.

Images and videos starting to roll in .

Thread below.
Firefighters inspecting potential damages to buildings evacuated in Miami as a precaution earlier

Read 7 tweets
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Cara TXZEAL
@Cara_TXZEAL
China confirmed today asymptomatic people can and are transmitting coronavirus. Some are carriers only.

Toronto confirmed case - contacting plane passengers who shared flight when he was symptomatic last week

#CoronavirusOutbreak
#coronavirus
#2019nCoV
#nCoV2019
#coronarvirus
Read 12 tweets
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Cara TXZEAL
@Cara_TXZEAL
Canadian traveler from Wuhan presumed w/ Coronavirus.Family in self isolation.

Provincial lab has confirmed. Awaiting National Microbiology Laboratory to confirm. Canada identifies first case of coronavirus business.financialpost.com/wcm/da013ab8-c… via @nationalpost
@nationalpost Updated Coronavirus numbers from China ... if accurate.

@nationalpost Hong Kong declares emergency due to coronavirus
5 officially infected cases
Closes public schools until Feb 17
Cancels official visits to mainland China
LNY festivities cancelled
Disney closed and water park
No trains into Wuhan area

cnbc.com/2020/01/25/hon…
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Laurie Garrett
@Laurie_Garrett
Last night in China (today, NYC time) Ma Xiaowei (MOH) said some startling things about #2019nCoV #coronavirus
- there are "walking sources of infection" -- people w/out symptoms, unknowingly spread the virus
- The incubation period is about 10 days
MORE
m.chinanews.com/wap/detail/zw/…
2/Ma Xiaowei
the shortest is one day, and the longest is 14 days. This is very different from #SARS.
- the current epidemic situation is "severe and complex"
- confirmed cases are in Tibet + 30 provinces across the country
- the infectivity of the virus is increasing
MORE
3/Ma Xiaowei
- main route of hu2hu spread is respiratory transmission
- the animal source has not been found
- the degree of harm of the virus to people of different ages is also changing (no details)
- "The rate of development of the epidemic is accelerating...
MORE
Read 4 tweets
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Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
BREAKING: Experts from China’s CDC in Guangdong now published a Jan 25th report that new #coronavirus has “higher pandemic risk than SARS”!!! They based it on R0 analysis from new data vs SARS. This is quite alarming if true. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) Here is China’s Guangdong CDC’s graph directly comparing R0 of the new 2019-nCoV with SARS during initial outbreak (using two approaches). “R values of 2019-nCoV were 2.90 & 2.92... while the corresponding R values of SARS-CoV were 1.77 & 1.85” (from biorxiv.org/content/10.110…)
3) How is SARS most different from the new #coronavirus? SARS was never contagious when someone had no symptoms. But the new #WuhanCoronavirus **can be transmitted** even when no symptoms! The former US FDA Commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb confirms it.
Read 14 tweets
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Leah McElrath 🏳️‍🌈
@leahmcelrath
#WuhanCoronavirus
Data thread🧵

Based on recent studies, transmission rate for the new #coronarovirus is currently around 2.6 (a factor referred to as its R0).

That means each infected person is likely to infect 2-3 additional people.

1/x
Here is what an R0 of 2.6 looks like graphically in terms of growth rate (the number of people to whom the virus spreads):

Source: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

#WuhanCoronovirus
2/x
The 2.6 R0 estimate for the new #coronarovirus comes from this study by epidemiologists in London, and it correlates closely with two other estimates I’ve seen.

The reports are available in PDF form in English and Mandarin.

#WuhanCoronovirus
3/x
 imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Read 19 tweets
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Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread:
2: “This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China...
3: “In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China”. Source: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Read 14 tweets
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Ferris Jabr
@ferrisjabr
The viral thread quoted below is missing essential context and contains numerous errors. It does not reflect the latest evidence. #2019nCoV

Here is a new thread with the facts:
The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV
The claim that the new coronavirus has an R0 of 3.8 is based on this paper medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

The authors of that paper emphasize the high degree of uncertainty and have already downgraded their estimate to an R0 of 2.5
Read 20 tweets
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World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO
LIVE: Press conference on the Emergency Committee meeting on new #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pscp.tv/w/cPnbJzI2MTAy…
The Emergency Committee on the new #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) considered that it is still too early to declare a public health emergency of international concern given its restrictive and binary nature
The Emergency Committee on the new #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) urged to support ongoing efforts through a WHO international multidisciplinary mission, including national experts
Read 30 tweets

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