UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread: 
2: “This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China...
3: “In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China”. Source: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
4: Even the author of the new 2.6 report admits that we need to plan for chance that “CONTAINMENT OF THIS EPIDEMIC ISN’T POSSIBLE”. Hence I’m not being uniquely distressed about this — the public health concern is very real!!
5: The 2.6’s author agrees it’s super dangerous and could infect without symptoms: “An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60% and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns. Not all might be symptomatic.”
6: How long ago did the #coronoavirus emerge and start spreading? “the Adam (or Eve) virus from which all others are descended first appeared no earlier than Oct. 30, 2019, and no later than Nov. 29.” Basically 1.5-2.5 months of unconfined proliferation. statnews.com/2020/01/24/dna…
7: the author of the 2.6 transmission report now acknowledges that given the way the #coronavirus is trending, “the evidence now suggests it is now rational to start planning for the scenario that containment efforts may not succeed.” We should hope for best but prepare for worst
8: This ominous incidence curve estimates the trajectory of the virus based on R0=2.6 (from the @MRC_Outbreak’s 3rd report on the #coronavirus). As always, here is the reference for transparency: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
9: A team from @WorldPopProject has heat mapped the highest risk areas in China and highest risk counties for the #WuhanCoronavirus based on Lunar New Year travel prior to the holiday. Thailand, Japan, and S Korea, and the US top the list. (Ref: worldpop.org/events/china)
10: “What is the R0 of the flu“ many people ask, for comparison to the #coronavirus. In most years, the typical seasonal flu has an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. (These are figures from a systematic review of the flu bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…)
11: Very useful tracking database + map 🗺 of the #coronarovirus built by @JohnsHopkinsSPH scientists. Here is the difference of just 4 days change of the #CoronavirusOutbreak. Map updated daily here: gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
12: Another report with R0 of 3.3-5.4 for #CoronavirusOutbreak #coronavirus. (Now I post this study with caveat it’s not peer reviewed, but such an R0 is much higher than other R0=2.6 by @MRC_Outbreak, but close to another R0=3.8). Regardless this is high. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
13: What is the #coronarvirus’s “Case Fatality”? We don’t know but it could be 1-10% according to @MRC_Outbreak expert. Scientists say it CANNOT be reliably calculated yet. Notably do *NOT* merely divide reported deaths / cases. Numbers are still too uncertain to calculate yet!!!
14: Very concerning new data from China CDC suggesting the #coronarvirus has “higher pandemic risk than SARS”. More details here:
