I'm starting my (hopefully) final thread on the Govt's still unpublished review into HS2. Again, this isn't a complete list of conclusions but I think it's in the public interest that it's out there and everyone, pro, anti or otherwise can have a read #HS2reviewconclusions #HS2
On phase 2a (Brum-Crewe): "if more ground investigations take place and design of 2a matures it may be poss. to bring this cost contingency down (see last tweet of previous thread) #HS2reviewconclusions #HS2
"Estimate of cost and schedule on 2b (Crewe-Mancs & Brum-Leeds) is least mature...cost estimate may need to be revised." #HS2reviewconclusions #HS2
reasons cost of 2b might need to be revised: "opportunities to change or refine the route have cost implications...cost estimate in stocktake (HS2's internal review last summer) cannot be relied on BECAUSE...(reasons in next tweet)..." #HS2reviewconclusions #HS2
"...bill not through parliament, land and property cost pressures, efficiencies and assumed engineering savings may not be achievable, lack of info on ground conditions...which needs to be remedied" #HS2reviewconclusions #HS2
CONCLUSION 15: "There is considerable risk that the prices for phase 1 (London-Brum) will not remain at the levels set out in the stock take (HS2's internal review published in the summer) unless rigorous cost controls put in place." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 16: "Far less certainty on costs and schedule for phase 2b. Would be unwise to commit a specific cost number for phase 2b given decisions on phase 2b route still to be made. Higher contingency levels appropriate to avoid issues phase 1 has faced." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 17: "Review considers costs on HS2 project would be around 15-20% higher than those set out in the chairman’s stocktake (the upper limit of that stocktake was £88bn - that's why it's been reported the project could cost up to £106bn)" #HS2reviewconclusions
And this on 17..."critically this assumes, amongst other things, that phase 2b proceeds as currently planned...there are real opportunities to reduce costs on 2b by removing gold-plating including through alignment redesign (changing the route)." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 18: Govt "should consider merging phase 2a (Brum-Crewe) with phase 1 (London-Brum)." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 19: "HS2 ltd and DfT need to deploy benchmarking (on costs) more consistently and more uniformly." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 20: "better coordination needed between HS2 and Network Rail (on the project)" #HS2reviewconclusions
On OVERALL AFFORDABILITY..."HS2 is no longer affordable within (the current) funding envelope. Therefore it is legitimate to ask whether proceeding with the project is a good way to use taxpayer money." #HS2reviewconclusions
Then it adds this CONTEXT: "if spread over 25 years (15-2040) costs of HS2 will amount to 0.2% of UK’s GDP." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 21: "HS2 as currently scoped not affordable within present envelope (set 2013 & revised 2015). If Govt commits to full y-shaped network, will need to commit signif extra funding to make affordable. Needs to be realistic with lots of contingency." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 22: "Serious consequences for supply chain and fragile UK construction industry & confidence in UK infrastructure planning if HS2 were cancelled at this late stage. Cancellation could hinder attempts to create an econ. transformation across UK" #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 23: "Reducing the specifications of HS2 phase 1 (London-Brum) should continue to be looked at but only within limits of Phase 1 act powers." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 23 (part b): "HS2 should thoroughly examine what gold-plating of standards can be removed on phase 2b (Crewe-Mancs & Brum-Leeds) to reduce costs, including alignment redesign (change route) if appropriate #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 24: "do a full review of milestones on phase 1." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 25: "revise phase 1 contracts" #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 26: "lessons need to be learnt from phase 1 contracts." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 27: On phase 2a (Brum-Crewe)..."dft should investigate potential to optimise design and reduce costs." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 28: project should "maximise commercial opportunities at phase 1 stations." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 29: there is a need to "work more with private sector on stations." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 30: "More work needed on how value created in land close to HS2 stations could be captured (into business case)." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 31: need for "better integration of HS2 stations to UK network" #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 32: "review concludes that existing design (of Euston) is not satisfactory." #HS2reviewconclusions
also CONCLUSION 32: "Euston should be viewed as 1 station, not 2 (current station and new HS2 station)." #HS2reviewconclusions
also CONCLUSION 32: "in-depth study needed to improve efficiency of (Euston) station." #HS2reviewconclusions
sorry, last bits were part of CONCLUSION 33. CONCLUSION 32 was that latter stages of project should be paused while a number of previous conclusions are implemented. Sorry can't be clearer with this one.
CONCLUSION 34: "needs to be a single plan for the overall euston project. Given the complexity of the euston project, HS2 ltd should not be in charge of this." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 35: "HS2 ltd’s management should be held to account vs milestones during their period in office." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 36: "HS2’s board and corporate governance appear to be nearing substantial readiness for next stage of HS2 project BUT additional non-exec directors should be appointed. Board must not be complacent. Need to improve company’s performance." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 37: "HS2 ltd’s governance arrangements need to evolve and strengthen to reflect the projects’ complexity and scale in future." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 38: "systems integration (integrating signalling and trains' software) in HS2 ltd needs to be strengthened now and maintained throughout life of project. A single point of accountability needed (on this)- is a vital lesson from Crossrail." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 39: "HS2 ltd should work closely with shadow operator (Avanti + partners) and Network Rail to ensure decisions reflect all perspectives." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 40: "going forward, Hs2 ltd needs to demo improvements to the satisfaction of HS2 ltd’s board, the DfT, and HMT, in cost estimation, management and control." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 40: "going forward, HS2 ltd needs to demo improvements in capability, to satisfaction of both HS2 ltd’s board and DfT, in number of key areas including commercial strategy, design management and construction management." #HS2reviewconclusions
sorry last one was 41...CONCLUSION 42: "improvements needed in stakeholder management." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 43: "govt should appoint (more?) non-exec directors to board - govt should ensure has clear oversight of project and costs." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 44: "as part of Notice to Proceed (green light from Govt on main construction), the DfT should set out plan for improving how it functions as sponsor, funder and shareholder - including using internal expertise." #HS2reviewconclusions
45 is very similar to 44.
CONCLUSION 46: "governance of HS2 should be reframed in light of Williams (rail) review (which is expected after Govt's decision on HS2)." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 47: "Secretary of State of transport should get regular reports (on HS2)." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 48: "The economic case (for HS2) does not currently fully align with the strategic case. Economic rebalancing, one of the primary drivers in the strategic case for HS2, is not currently reflected in the economic case." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 49: "Further work needed on understanding potential impact of HS2 on number and location of homes and jobs." (then says work needed to understand impact of this on overall business case of the project) #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 50: "further work needed on understanding why reducing overcrowding (on existing rail network) doesn’t play a greater role in the quantified benefits." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 51: "there are impacts that are currently not quantified that are important to consider alongside the monetised benefit-cost ratio...includes potential transformational benefits HS2 could unlock through changing land-use as well as adverse environmental impacts."
CONCLUSION 52: "the net economic cost to the transport budget has increased from £40bn to £62-69bn (present values, 2015 prices)." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 53: "The latest results indicate that the full y-shaped network represents ‘low-medium’ value for money." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 54: "The evidence is clear that full network is needed to realise the highest value for money economic return on the investment of HS2. Phase one as a standalone scheme doesnt present value for money, nor does phase 2 without building phase 1." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 55: "If an integrated rail plan & investment programme for the midlands and north of E is developed, the appraisal of this integrated rail plan and investment programme should be assessed in addition to individual projects and phases of schemes." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 56: "analysis suggests that the full HS2 network has a benefit-cost ratio range of 1.0-2.1 and represents low-high value for money." (1.0 means it represents £1 of return for every £1 spent) #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 57: "The benefit-cost-ratio could be improved by removing the hands acre connection and reducing the proposed frequency of HS2 services from 17 to 16 trains per hour." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 58: "14 trains per hour with passive provision for 16 tph, needs to be considered in future biz case work. Initial analysis suggest that a move below 16 tph would likely have a marginal negative impact on the Benefit Cost Ratio." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 59: "Before issuing NtP (green light), an updated biz case for phase one, approved by HMT, should be published & the Dft should update and publish a revised biz case for project as a whole. Should include the latest cost and benefits for project." #HS2reviewconclusions
extra bit to 60: "terminating at Old Oak Common with 18 trains per hour would save £2-2.5bn." #HS2reviewconclusions
extra bit to 60: "not going to Euston (terminating at Old Oak Common) would have a significant negative impact on biz case for HS2." #HS2reviewconclusions
extra bit to 60: "removing OOC-Euston stretch...could reduce transport user benefits and revenues by £20-30bn...and cause overcrowding on Crossrail." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 60: "Euston station important part of realising the benefits of HS2, and section from OOC to Euston should not be removed from scope of project. It is vital to get the Euston project right. OOC should act as the temp london terminus for HS2 services til Euston done"
CONCLUSION 61: "It is now hard to stop Phase 1 and start HS2 in the north of E. without years of blight given that powers have been taken for phase 1, and a significant amount of work has been carried out on phase 1." #HS2reviewconclusions
also CONCLUSION 61: "The quickest way to deliver long-distance inter-city connectivity to the midlands and the north of England is to continue with phase 1 and to fully commit to subsequent phases." #HS2reviewconclusions
nearly there!
"Northern Powerhouse Rail and Midlands engine rail proposals all designed on premise that HS2 going ahead as currently planned and they use HS2 infrastructure." #HS2reviewconclusions
"cancelling HS2 would likely delay NPR and MER" #HS2reviewconclusions
"Upgrades to existing network if HS2 cancelled would come at high passenger cost...10+ years of disruption in weekend closures." #HS2reviewconclusions
CONCLUSION 62: "There are no shovel-ready alternative investments in the existing network that are available. If Hs2 were to be cancelled, many years of planning work would be required to identify, design and develop new proposals." #HS2reviewconclusions
Last but not least...CONCLUSION 63: "The review strongly advises against cancelling the scheme." #HS2reviewconclusions #HS2reviewkindofpublished
Over and out. for now. And just to emphasise, I read the review, took very extensive notes and these threads are the result. I merely published what I noted down and I apologise in advance if I made any typos/errors or missed anything I should have included.
