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A thread on key changes over a block of 5 years (2014-19) compared to previous 5 years (2009-13) , key avenues for govt inflows and key spends by govt. Please note these are not actual inflows/ spends, but difference in inflows/spends
1. Oil savings on count of higher taxes (made possible with fall in global crude), as well as reduction in subsidies (which has been a significant reform) has been the biggest delta source for govt finances. Thank goodness for this windfall!
2. For states, this increase in oil has primarily gone into loan waiver for farmers
3. The biggest delta change for outlays has been wages and pensions ( categorized as 7th pay comm). This has been a mammoth 145bn$ increase for almost 4 mn employees and 6mn pensioners. If one looks going ahead over 3-4 year block, there shouldn't be any large delta outlays
4. Govt disinvestment has been key reason for psu underperforming in equity markets. Broadly proceeds for disinvestment have gone in recap PSU banks. With bulk of NPA cycle of last eco cycle behind us, requirements for recaps is going to be limited if we take a block of 5 year
5. Cess from high income earners(50 lakh+) has also been substantial. With close to 15bn$ over last 5 years, it is highly probable that this "low hanging fruit" for taxman means there is no going back, sadly...
6. Infrastructure spending (road, rail, housing and power) has seen a massive jump. This includes off balance sheet borrowing and bonds. Govt has done significant heavy lifting , my guess will be over next 5 years, pvt capex and real estate should take over
7. While govt has stepped up investment in infra , last 2 years have been disappointing , especially for roads where there has been a significant drop, while other key sectors allocation have been maintained
8. GST reduction amount is calculated basis on RBI report that GST rates have fallen from 14.4% to 11.6%
9. Small savings is a significant distortion now, accounts for a good chunk of borrowing in a year and more costly for the govt.
10. While this year budget had several constraints, going forward there is room for spending as wage bill delta and psu bank recap moderates down. End of thread!
Few have responded as to why numbers don't tally, firstly this is not an exhaustive list, this is what caught my eye, also given fiscal accounting is very different from company accounting. Am sure a very good macro economist can provide more accurate info
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