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There's a new face in our forecast in a *beautiful* gold color.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
We've always been forecasting Bloomberg FWIW, but he'd been pretty hard to find. He'll now appear along with Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren as one of the 5 candidates we feature in all our illustrations.
Notice that our forecast actually has Bloomberg getting a decent number of delegates. It's verrrrry skeptical of his ability to get a pledged delegate *majority* because he's starting from behind. But he could certainly accumulate delegates, and be a factor later on.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This poll was conducted yesterday (i.e. post-NH) which makes it a rather encouraging poll for Biden.
Here, from Florida, is the other fully post-NH state poll we have and it's ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You can see why Florida is a good state for both Bloomberg and Biden (old people). At the same time, this round of state polling is not suggestive of Sanders shoring up his support with his weakest groups, which keeps the door open for everyone else.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
They presumably won't endorse Sanders, or Warren, given their vocally coming out against M4A in recent days.
So, who do we think it's gonna be, politics Twitter?
LOL it kind of figures that this poll is hopelessly deadlocked.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our polling average is starting to get more aggressive about Biden's decline. Bloomberg and Buttigieg rising. Sanders too, though not super quickly. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
And our first model run with any post-NH polling data reflects this also. Bernie and Buttigieg up slightly. Bloomberg up more and is now 2nd in projected delegates. Biden down quite a bit, Warren slightly down. Not much traction for Klobuchar yet. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorseme…
Meanwhile, "no majority" chances holding steady at 36%, only slightly behind Bernie (39%).
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Eric Holthaus
@EricHolthaus
New @FiveThirtyEight forecast shows Bernie Sanders as the new Democratic frontrunner.
@FiveThirtyEight Key changes post-Iowa:

- Sanders is now expected to win Nevada easily
- Sanders and Biden are now tied in South Carolina
- Sanders is now expected to win every state on Super Tuesday, except Alabama
- Sanders + Warren are expected to get 2105 delegates combined, enough to clinch
@FiveThirtyEight Here's Texas now. @FiveThirtyEight now gives Bernie a 45% chance of winning the most delegates there.

That's a big shift, pre-Iowa.
Read 5 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (chg vs last week):

Biden: 26 (-3)
Sanders: 24 (6)
Warren: 20 (-1)
Buttigieg: 7 (-1)
Klobuchar: 4 (0)
Bloomberg: 4 (-2)
Yang: 4 (0)
Gabbard: 3 (1)
Steyer: 1 (-2)
Patrick: 1 (0)
Who are Democrats considering voting for?

Biden: 49%
Warren: 48
Sanders: 45
Buttigieg: 28
Klobuchar: 20
Bloomberg: 19
Booker: 18
Yang: 16
Steyer: 12
Castro: 10
Gabbard: 6
Bennet: 4
Patrick: 3
Delaney: 2
Who would they be disappointed to see win the nomination?

Gabbard: 42%
Bloomberg: 31
Delaney: 25
Biden: 23
Steyer: 23
Patrick: 23
Bennet: 21
Sanders: 20
Buttigieg: 19
Yang: 17
Klobuchar: 17
Warren: 15
Read 5 tweets
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Xinqi Su
@XinqiSu
#NOW in Tsim Sha Tsui, umbrella-holding protesters have occupied Salisbury Rd and walked into Nathan Road. Not a huge crowd but many are waiting along roads from TST pier.
Cantonese is difficult but not too difficult
@ Nathan Rd, Tsim Sha Tsui
Hold it tight when storm looms - protesting couples in #AntiMaskBan march in Tsim Sha Tsui.
Chan Ka-ming, a pro-democracy district council candidate, is chanting slogan at a TST station exit on Nathan Rd.
Read 34 tweets
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julianzelizer
@julianzelizer
When pundits accuse congressional Republicans of enabling @realDonaldTrump, they get the causality wrong. POTUS enables the modern GOP by championing their policies and their style of governance from the Oval Office./1
The dynamic reminds me of a song by the @drivebytruckers, “The Part of Him,” which is about a Tea Party politico. @pattersonhood sings about how the party eventually kicks him out, knowing that “someone else will play the part of him." /2
With lyrics about a conservative who is “totally Nixonian/honing in the art of making deals” and who “did what he had to do to get southern boys to vote for you” it is notable that the song came out in 2014. /3
Read 14 tweets
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David Jensen
@RealDavidJensen
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan BRICS nations for years openly discussing trade w/ "parallel" monetary system including gold trade settlement.
Saudi put in place RippleNet alt. to SWIFT that allows bank-to-bank real-time settlement in any medium of trade.
Italy signalling ready to go.
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan More to the point - #gold seems to be the focal point of new trade settlement system.

“Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted." Alan Greenspan.

realnoevremya.com/articles/2075-…
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan When a central banker or economist mentions 'stimulus', they are talking about diluting the currency through debt currency issuance - to create REAL GROWTH.

This is the insanity & silly talk promoted by central bankers globally.

Nobody asks the question.

#centralbanking #gold
Read 55 tweets
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John Reade
@JReade_WGC
Gold: Sitting like a Coiled Spring, #gold remains below $1200/oz on Monday, although it has recovered a little ground from the lows last week. 1/7
Gold: Why did I use the ‘Coiled Spring’ analogy? Because of build-up of Managed Money short #gold positions held on the Comex Futures market. Gross Managed Money short positions increased by a further 1.7 million ounces last week and now stand at a new record 18.8moz. 2/7
Gold: This has driven the net Managed Money #gold position to a larger net short position. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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