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#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (chg vs last week):

Biden: 26 (-3)
Sanders: 24 (6)
Warren: 20 (-1)
Buttigieg: 7 (-1)
Klobuchar: 4 (0)
Bloomberg: 4 (-2)
Yang: 4 (0)
Gabbard: 3 (1)
Steyer: 1 (-2)
Patrick: 1 (0)
Who are Democrats considering voting for?

Biden: 49%
Warren: 48
Sanders: 45
Buttigieg: 28
Klobuchar: 20
Bloomberg: 19
Booker: 18
Yang: 16
Steyer: 12
Castro: 10
Gabbard: 6
Bennet: 4
Patrick: 3
Delaney: 2
Who would they be disappointed to see win the nomination?

Gabbard: 42%
Bloomberg: 31
Delaney: 25
Biden: 23
Steyer: 23
Patrick: 23
Bennet: 21
Sanders: 20
Buttigieg: 19
Yang: 17
Klobuchar: 17
Warren: 15
#Bloombergmentum ?
Also happening in our data: Sanders is about to overtake Biden among Hispanics: projects.economist.com/democratic-pri…
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW from me: What would happen if the Democrats instituted a national primary using ranked-choice voting? I got the data from @YouGovUS and crunched the numbers:

economist.com/graphic-detail…
@YouGovUS We had YouGov ask over 2,000 Democratic voters to rank all the 2020 candidates over the past month. We used those responses to simulate ranked-choice voting in the primary.

How does RCV work, you ask? Just a reminder....
@YouGovUS 0. Count up all the ballots
1. Did someone win a majority of the vote? If yes, they win. If not....
2. Anyone who listed the last-place candidate gets their votes redistributed to their next-ranked option.
3. Re-tally the votes and repeat 1-2 until someone gets a majority.
Read 10 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW I wrote about "electability" and the 2020 Democratic primary for the paper this week. We combined political science and polling data and found that a moderate Dem with strength among working-class whites has the best chance against Trump.

<THREAD>

economist.com/united-states/…
The 2020 election is likely to be close. Trump's approval rating & GDP growth suggest that he'll win about 49% of the two-party vote, per our modeling. He's clearly competitive, especially when Democrats need to win the popular vote by about ~2.5pts to win the electoral college.
So the "electability" of the candidates is a particular concern for Democrats.

So what do we know about who is more likely to win general elections?
Read 13 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Term limits are a really good idea if you want to decrease experience (esp. institutional) in Congress, increase political polarization and increase the relative power of lobbyists over legislators. But the other “advantages” are mostly over-hyped or simply wrong.
Maybe Yang and Steyer should read some political science before running again in 2024
Want To Ruin Congress? Tom Steyer Has A Plan For That
Read 3 tweets

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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'm picking a bit on headlines here instead of the stories themselves but any time you're arguing "candidate X can't win the election", you're doing it wrong. We don't know that much about electability and what we do know suggests differences in candidates don't matter THAT much.
In principle, if you want to argue say Candidate X has a 55% chance of beating Trump and Candidate Y has a 35% chance, that's at least a plausible magnitude for electability differences. Though in practice, it's hard/impossible to be that precise 10 months in advance, of course.
Any of [Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, etc.] can beat Trump. And any of them can lose to Trump. If you think otherwise, you're extremely overconfident about how much is knowable about any of this.
Read 3 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
#KamalaHarris's support is almost evenly split between women and men. The same is true of her support from voters with and without college degrees. Her support from black voters is equal to Biden's and support from Latinx is higher.
via @MorningConsult
#LizWarren's main support is from women at 60%. Warren's support from voters over and under 45 is almost evenly split, unlike any other top four candidate. And she has nearly equal support among college and no college voters.

via @MorningConsult
The evenness of @KamalaHarris's polling between women and men and voters of color and white voters versus the other top four candidates is significant and bolsters her electability argument.

via @MorningConsult
Read 4 tweets
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Topless Topics
@ToplessTopics
#warren/#buttigieg 2020. Tell me why I'm wrong.
I was really hoping to elect a person of color, and I still have some interest in Harris. But she's getting too much heat for her prosecutor background. Besides Warren has the most policies that align with my view of America, AND she knows how to make those goals achievable!
And Buttigieg... I'm still learning about his ability to govern, but I'm continually impressed by how worldly and hella SMART he is. and he's obviously had some inside experience of oppression as a gay man from middle America.
Read 12 tweets

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