MULTIPLICATIVE DYNAMICS
1/ How mortal is the coronavirus and how mortal it could be are two different things.
2/ For example, how mortal does it become when patients cannot be hospitalized because hospital beds are full?
3/ This is not impossible: it's in China today.
(cont)
1/ How mortal is the coronavirus and how mortal it could be are two different things.
2/ For example, how mortal does it become when patients cannot be hospitalized because hospital beds are full?
3/ This is not impossible: it's in China today.
(cont)
4/ INDIRECT DEATHS: how many people will die from unrelated illnesses because the medical system is overloaded with virus cases?
5/ This thread is not to incite panic, but to show how bad the worst scenario can be and thus for how we should act now (closing borders) & preparing.
5/ This thread is not to incite panic, but to show how bad the worst scenario can be and thus for how we should act now (closing borders) & preparing.
6/ Preparations have to be made *now*. We have now a freedom and a capacity to act we might not enjoy in a few weeks, if the system overloads.
7/ I'm not talking about stocking up (which is individually beneficial but socially damaging if supplies are not enough), but…
7/ I'm not talking about stocking up (which is individually beneficial but socially damaging if supplies are not enough), but…
8/ Are there people to train?
Are there triage systems to test?
Are there works to make to prepare quarantine areas?
These are questions worth answering now, not because we need (health)care capacity now, but because we might not have time to grow it later.
Are there triage systems to test?
Are there works to make to prepare quarantine areas?
These are questions worth answering now, not because we need (health)care capacity now, but because we might not have time to grow it later.
9/ We all witnessed how the situation can evolve from "a few isolated cases" to "more people than US or EU quarantined" in just a couple of weeks. One single patient we fail to quarantine might mean a whole infected city to quarantine a few weeks later.
10/ A few patients treated with care in a top hospital might evolve in thousands of people failing to enter any hospital.
We owe it to our future selves in one of the few future parallel worlds in which this turns in a nightmare to begin making some preparations now.
We owe it to our future selves in one of the few future parallel worlds in which this turns in a nightmare to begin making some preparations now.
11/ This is not to say that governments, after an initial hesitation, haven't been reacting appropriately. Some did.
But reactions are, well, reactive. And to prevent the worst case, we need to act now.
But reactions are, well, reactive. And to prevent the worst case, we need to act now.
12/ A fire extinguisher must be bought before the fire, and for each fire extinguisher which is used, thousands sit in dust.
But the latter are never a reason not to buy a fire extinguisher before a fire, even if it's expensive, even if it's ridicule.
But the latter are never a reason not to buy a fire extinguisher before a fire, even if it's expensive, even if it's ridicule.
13/Good questions to ask: what will we do which will guarantee that, if the virus reaches our country or our city, we won't have to lock it down like it's happening in China?
What will we do differently? Which *systems* will we set in place to avoid committing the same mistakes?
What will we do differently? Which *systems* will we set in place to avoid committing the same mistakes?
