Great thread - Smith may have been sacked for having too much integrity given the way the UK government hope to implement the Irish protocol. Or for speaking up too much in Cabinet.
EU leaders, and many across Ireland will read this thread, and...
EU leaders, and many across Ireland will read this thread, and...
The view is likely to deepen in the EU and across Ireland that this is not a government which can be trusted to keep international commitments, unless they are clearly stated. Hence a harder line is likely to be seen in negotiations - which the UK will in turn blame on the EU.
Back in London the Cummings and Cabinet response is likely to be to up the rhetoric, to play the domestic audience, rather than focus on doing what will get the best deal for the UK. It will make the start of talks difficult. Hence my 50:50 judgement on whether a deal is likely.
And note again there is as yet no senior Cabinet Minister who has the full responsibility for EU talks, who can take control of the message and the strategy. Politically, domestically, this may work fine. Internationally it is not likely to lead to good outcomes.
But then my impression is that at the heart of government there is no concern whatsoever about whether any trade deals - with EU or others - benefit the country at all. They are to be status symbols at best. The administration is to be domestically focused.
Business see the government now as more open than before, but probably no more receptive. Government does not believe business that the implications of no EU deal will be so bad. It is a major challenge for business, but there is also a weariness with the whole thing.
Most importantly, there is no real domestic opposition to the government in London on the EU, whether from other political parties or campaigns. Mostly just fatalism.
And the day-to-day Brexit excitement is over, we're now in a long term grind to get a responsive government /end
And the day-to-day Brexit excitement is over, we're now in a long term grind to get a responsive government /end
PS no, total deregulation is not the UK government goal. This will be the most interventionist government since the 1970s. But also the most isolationist since... when? NB lack of attendance at Munich security summit this weekend
