Post correctly identifies three possible origins of outbreak virus (1/5):
"bats serve as reservoir hosts"
or
"adaptation during..human-to-human transmission"
or
"passage in cell culture or animals with ACE-2 receptor similar to humans (e.g. ferrets)"
"bats serve as reservoir hosts"
or
"adaptation during..human-to-human transmission"
or
"passage in cell culture or animals with ACE-2 receptor similar to humans (e.g. ferrets)"
All three of these may have occurred either as a natural accident or as a laboratory accident (2/5).
Representative routes of lab-accident transmission for the three possibilities are as follows:
Representative routes of lab-accident transmission for the three possibilities are as follows:
"plausible that bats serve as reservoir hosts" (3/5)
Worker collecting bat samples, or worker in lab handling bat samples or bat viruses is infected by immediate progenitor of outbreak virus. After brief adaptation to human in patient 0 and possibly others, outbreak occurs.
Worker collecting bat samples, or worker in lab handling bat samples or bat viruses is infected by immediate progenitor of outbreak virus. After brief adaptation to human in patient 0 and possibly others, outbreak occurs.
adaptation during..human-to-human transmission" (4/5)
Worker collecting bat samples, or worker in lab handling bat samples or bat viruses is infected by distant progenitor of outbreak virus. After extended adaptation to human in patient 0 and poss others, outbreak occurs.
Worker collecting bat samples, or worker in lab handling bat samples or bat viruses is infected by distant progenitor of outbreak virus. After extended adaptation to human in patient 0 and poss others, outbreak occurs.
"passage in cell culture or animals with ACE-2 receptor similar to humans (e.g. ferrets)" (5/5)
Progenitor of outbreak virus is passaged in lab in culture or animals. Worker is infected, and after poss additional adaptation to human in patient 0 and poss others, outbreak occurs
Progenitor of outbreak virus is passaged in lab in culture or animals. Worker is infected, and after poss additional adaptation to human in patient 0 and poss others, outbreak occurs
For further reference on above possibilities:
(1) 2019 Chinese official state media video at
thepaper.cn/newsDetail_for…
(2) 2017 Chinese official state media news report at xinhuanet.com/local/2017-05/…
(3) 2012 peer-reviewed papers at ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
(1) 2019 Chinese official state media video at
thepaper.cn/newsDetail_for…
(2) 2017 Chinese official state media news report at xinhuanet.com/local/2017-05/…
(3) 2012 peer-reviewed papers at ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
And, apropos all three of the above possibilities:
February 17, 2020 Chinese official media news report on "chronic loopholes" in virus lab biosafety:
globaltimes.cn/content/117974…
February 17, 2020 Chinese official media news report on "chronic loopholes" in virus lab biosafety:
globaltimes.cn/content/117974…
