Thread by @gavinsblog

*mulls Tesla thread that's been stewing in my head for months*

Ok. For this thread I'm actually going to go to my local and order a nice pint of Murphy's and tweet from there.

It feels like the market has suddenly woken up to Tesla lately (to too large a degree perhaps), but for nerds like me involved in them since 2013, it's gas craic...

I have more thoughts on the next 10 years for Tesla..

*sups pint*

So some quick context. Back in 2015 I outlined Tesla's autonomy strategy, 9 months before @elonmusk published Masterplan Part Deux, here: medium.com/@gavinsblog/el…

@elonmusk The post was my most read ever, at 200,000+ views in a few days. I wrote a followup piece after the Part Deux post here: medium.com/@gavinsblog/mu…

@elonmusk In July 2017 I wrote this piece, arguing that Tesla and SpaceX would tie up to deliver broadband to homes AND vehicles via the as yet unnamed Starlink network.

medium.com/@gavinsblog/wi…

@elonmusk I followed with a more detailed analysis here medium.com/@gavinsblog/th…

A few months later, Morgan Stanley Tesla analyst Adam Jonas specifically asked Musk about this.

@elonmusk And last month I wrote a piece for @thecurrency (paywall) in which I argued that Tesla/SpaceX was - either by accident or design - building the world's fastest supercomputer, that would ultimately be connected to orbital data centres.

thecurrency.news/articles/7598/…

@elonmusk @thecurrency But there's some extra stuff I've been stewing on. It's a bit like unraveling a mystery, and as always I enjoy the idle speculation. So let's explore one element of it. The Starlink/Tesla hookup.

@elonmusk @thecurrency First, SpaceX has essentially said (with a wink and a smile from Gwynne Shotwell) that there will be Tesla iterations that can connect to Starlink's LEO broadband satellites, using phased array antennae. Let's assume that's true, and let's assume they will be "pizza box" size.

@elonmusk @thecurrency *deep breath, sups pint*

There are a few things to note here. The Model 3 is obviously the latest model, with Y coming also. S and X are earlier iterations, and as we all know, Tesla and SpaceX love iterative development via hardware and software, rather than many models.

@elonmusk @thecurrency Next is that Starlink has some stuff we expected but haven't got yet. This includes satellite to satellite lasers for data transfer (maybe on future versions). This might mean they are using plain old spectrum.

@elonmusk @thecurrency (radio that is). Anyways Mark Handley did a really interesting video recently speculating as to why. It's really very good, here it is.

@elonmusk @thecurrency It was good enough that Adam Jonas hinted at it in his question to Musk on the most recent conference call. Handley essentially argues that lasers aren't needed, that you can use the installed antennae as relays on the network, bouncing data from home -> satellite -> home.

@elonmusk @thecurrency In this model, he argues that you could end up with being able to send packets over the orbital network faster than you even could with lasers, particularly if you have a wide installed based of antennae across any given country or countries. Your own customers help pay for it.

@elonmusk @thecurrency But what Handley didn't bring up is *the Tesla fleet*. Imagine that it was not only Starlink antennas installed on your roof that were relays for the network, but Tesla cars too. So Teslas, while moving, would not just consume bandwith, but relay it.

@elonmusk @thecurrency The data being processed on the vehicles with super fast chips is also uploaded to the Starlink network (with orbital data centres for storage too). Or as I argued last month, you could dole out compute jobs to Teslas while they charge.

@elonmusk @thecurrency *sups more Murphy's*

So anyways, what would this thing look like? It all sounds a bit abstract...

@elonmusk @thecurrency The type of antenna Starlink will start selling (perhaps as soon as later this year) are called phased array antennas. They are flat, don't move, and typically hexagonal in shape. Here's a phased array antenna from rival firm Kymeta.

@elonmusk @thecurrency All SpaceX have said is that they will be about "pizza box size".

But if there's one thing we can be sure of: phased array tech will get smaller and better, but likely maintain the hexagonal shape because physics.

@elonmusk @thecurrency *sups pint*

So let's take a look at a Tesla, in the latest incarnation, the Model 3. Let's assume the Starlink antenna is smaller than the Kymeta antenna (because tech). Where would you put it? Is Model 3 even compatible?

@elonmusk @thecurrency Well, it has a couple of things on the plus and minus side. One the plus side it has lots of battery to fuel the antenna. On the minus side it has a glass roof.

That leaves the hood as the main surface area that could conceivably hold a phased array antenna.

@elonmusk @thecurrency But there's another thing about phased arrays - they could be used as arrays.

In fact, Kymeta hinted at this in a demo model in partnership with Toyota a few years back. First, notice the hexagons on the side of the mockup.

@elonmusk @thecurrency Here's Kymeta's mockup on the roof of the Toyota - six hexagonal antennas in a grid. Now clearly, Teslas roofs are likely not suitable...

@elonmusk @thecurrency So what about that Model 3 hood? Well there's nothing obvious about it, it's just a normal hood. But there's no engine underneath either....

@elonmusk @thecurrency Except when you lift it.

@elonmusk @thecurrency I count 8 hexagons, which up to now the purpose of which has been believed to be structural integrity for the very light hood.

Is this an easter egg for the future antenna in the hood?

@elonmusk @thecurrency There's two considerations here:

1. Retrofitting existing Model 3s with "hot swappable" hoods so they can access Starlink

2. Whether the hood and mould to make the hood was designed with Starlink in mind, and that the hood could be removed and replaced (as Tesla do with FSDC)

@elonmusk @thecurrency Will Teslas leave factories with Starlink antennas already installed? I think yes.

Will Teslas be upgradeable to Starlink access? I think so

Will Teslas act as relays for the overall Starlink network? Very possibly.

Will Tesla computer power be exploited? Yes.

@elonmusk @thecurrency Will bandwidth demand for autonomous vehicles be huge? Yes.

Will SpaceX AND Bezos/Blue Origin put data centres in orbit? Yes.

@elonmusk @thecurrency Will any other vehicle manufacturer be able to keep up with this level of integration? Highly unlikely.

Will any other *autonomy* provider like Google/Waymo have vehicles permanently connected to their own satellite broadband network? No

@elonmusk @thecurrency So I think the moat is getting bigger for Tesla and SpaceX. Whether it's battery tech, a global supercomputer, autonomy, reusable rockets, a global broadband network, no one else is really coming close. The market thought Tesla was a car company.

@elonmusk @thecurrency It's not. It's something completely different. It's Tesla/SpaceX combined, a battery company and a telco.

Throw in Cybertruck (integrated Starlink on the back), Tesla trucks connected to Starlink, homes with Starlink connected to solar and batteries...

@elonmusk @thecurrency Those hexagons are the clue on all the Model 3s rolling off the assembly line *today*. I don't think anyone else though that they might be for holding future antennas!

(Disclosure: I've been long Tesla since 2013, and continue to be, with a very small number of shares).

Pint complete. Cheers folks. In 2030 when all this is done @elonmusk owes me one lol

@elonmusk I should also cc @jess on this thread as she gave the 2015 blog post legs (I hope everyone bought Tesla stock back then.. !)