THREAD: As part of my research, a few years ago I looked into effects of Spanish flu on US economy 1918-1919. It had similar transmission/mortality rates as COVID19. It might serve as worst case scenario becuz US govt mostly failed to respond, medicine/virology were pre-modern 1/
The first outbreaks occurred during Feb 1918 at military training centers in the US Midwest. The virus then spread rapidly through the country’s military bases. Soldiers home on leave carried it into civilian population, while US troops shipped to Brest took the flu to France. 2/
By May 1918, the disease was rampant across the United States and Europe. However, it appeared to have been a mild strain that doctors dismissed as a “three-day fever”. Also, due to wartime censorship, few newspapers reported on the flu except its spread amongst German ranks. 3/
Only in Spain, where the press had relatively free reign, did stories begin to pour in, earning the flu the moniker of “Spanish”. 4/
Suddenly, in late August, a far more serious variant appeared. It first hit the American population during September 1918, when major outbreaks were reported in Boston. It then quickly spread to New York and Philadelphia. By mid-Oct, most of the nation’s cities were infected. 5/
The peak of flu deaths occurred during October 1918, but the flu would continue to menace Americans in waves until it burned itself out during spring 1919. President Wilson provided no leadership on the Spanish flu. He never spoke publicly about the pandemic. 6/
Nor did anyone in Wilson's administration attempt to set national priorities, coordinate a response, or deliver Federal resources to affected regions. The US was then preparing its first military offensive in Europe and nothing was to divert attention away from that effort. 7/
As for the flu’s impact on the military, Wilson deferred to his Army Chief of Staff, who prioritized sending troops to Europe over defending them against the disease. As a result, ill soldiers and sailors were sent to join American forces abroad spreading the disease further. 8/
Roughly 17 percent of the AEF became infected, resulting in as many deaths as combat; the closer quarters of ships meant that perhaps 40 percent of the US Navy became ill. 9/
On the civilian front, Wilson left the Spanish Flu to Congress. Both the House and Senate met hurriedly in late September 1918 and voted to provide an additional one million dollars to the tiny US Public Health Service (USPHS). 10/
But the USPHS money was not new funding; rather it was to be diverted from other items within the existing wartime budget. Treatment and immunization were not options, they were too expensive and the state of medical research was then barely modern. 11/
Virology was still in its infancy and there was little in the way of effective pharmaceuticals available. Doctors attempted to treat patients with aspirin, oxygen, epinephrine, and even cinnamon; all useless against the disease. 12/
The USPHS therefore spent its efforts mostly on data-gathering & public educatn, with some attempts to organize medical personnel. Rather it was states/cities that provided the primary govt response to the flu, mostly with simple curfews, closures, and education campaigns. 13/
All told, the Spanish flu epidemic claimed nearly 675,000 lives within the US between September 1918 and June 1919, while incapacitating tens of millions. At its height, it infected 28% of the US population and, of those who caught it, around 2.5% died. 14/
Especially hard hit were adults under forty, the core of the American military and civilian workforce. The result was a major labor shortage and business disruptions throughout the economy. 15/
Construction crews were idled. Businesses closed. Hotels, libraries, theaters, government offices, even saloons shut down. Sporting events were called off. Large private gatherings were banned, including weddings and funerals. 16/
The major railroad lines slowed to a crawl as tens of thousands of employees became bedridden. When the flu struck telephone and telegraph workers, the nation’s communication system suffered intermittent breakdowns and long delays. 17/
Over the course of 5 months, industrial production declined 7% and the overall economy shrank around 4%. Interestingly, the stock market barely registered the pandemic, not sure why. 18/
The good news is that, within a few months, the pandemic burned out. Scientists are still not sure why. The economy quickly rebounded, hitting peak performance (partly thanks to wartime spending) soon after. 19/
Worldwide the flu killed an estimated 50 million, or about 2.8% of the global population. In spring 1919, it disappeared as mysteriously as it had arrived. The virus was not identified by scientists until the early 1930s. 20/
For more see Barry, John. 2004. The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History; Crosby, Alfred 2003. America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918; Byerly, Carol. 2005. Fever of War: The Influenza Epidemic in the U.S. Army during World War I. END/
