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Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven or 'Schmuck Insurance'?

As #BTC falls alongside everything else, the safe haven narrative is taking a *beating* but in today's Breakdown, I argue that 'safe haven' & 'uncorrelated' have been lumped when they're quite distinct.

coindesk.com/is-bitcoin-a-s…
Featuring @chamath comments on CNBC today.

Episode also covers:

Central bank digital currency (CBDC) news: Canada's disinterest + China delays

The six-year anniversary of Mt. Gox’s lost 750,000 BTC coming to light.

Listen wherever: plnk.to/nlw/e/10004667…
@chamath BTW if you aren't familiar with the genesis of the Schmuck Insurance line - this 2013 essay by Chamath will become a must read historical document in the history of Bitcoin. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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More from @nlw see all

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Nathaniel Whittemore
@nlw
Live footage of the Fed fixing corona with monetary policy.
While you’re here, let’s get your hot take on a key political question
aaaaaaand there it is wsj.com/articles/feder…
Read 3 tweets
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Nathaniel Whittemore
@nlw
Do you use Discord?
For science...

Do you use Telegram?
Screw it let's round this thing out.

Do you use Reddit for bitcoin/crypto?
Read 4 tweets
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Nathaniel Whittemore
@nlw
@alexisohanian 1/ Okay, so, let's dive in.

One imp thing is that there is growing specialization based on focus, which I think you could roughly divide into:

1. Bitcoin only
2. News/Analysis
3. General Interest Interview
4. Investor/Institutional
5. Technically-oriented
6. Idea adjacent
@alexisohanian 2/ First up, we have our bitcoin-only's

@WhatBitcoinDid w @PeterMcCormack
@TFTC21 w @MartyBent @matt_odell
@stephanlivera
@BitcoinMagazine podcast

+ a number of others
@alexisohanian @WhatBitcoinDid @PeterMcCormack @TFTC21 @MartyBent @matt_odell @stephanlivera @BitcoinMagazine 3/ Next, our news/analysis programs

Actually a surprisingly newer category

#TheBreakdown w me (dist on @CoinDeskPodcast)
Markets Daily w @GamerAndy on @CoinDeskPodcast
@laurashin has Unconfirmed and Unchained, w/ Unconfirmed being more of the news react pod
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Charles Edwards
@caprioleio
My #Bitcoin Forecast

🚀Bitcoin $100K within 5 years

Based on a conservative estimate of Bitcoin’s Energy Value, it is likely that $BTC will 𝟭𝟬𝗫 within the next 5 years.

A thread forecasting Bitcoin’s long-term price using Energy Value.

1/n
𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝗵

Bitcoin’s Energy Value has tracked Bitcoin’s price for the last 10 years.

Let’s use it to forecast price.

There are only two varying inputs in Energy Value:
⚡️Hash Rate
⚙️Mining Hardware efficiency

We can forecast each of these to predict BTC's Price.

2/n
⚡️Hash Rate

Over the last 5yrs, Bitcoin’s HR has grown exponentially (linear on a log scale).

Assuming this relationship holds, but allowing for some market saturation, we can estimate that the HR growth rate drops from ~135% p.a. today to ~20% p.a. in 2025.

3/n
Read 15 tweets
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Be_Independent_Tribe
@be_ind_tribe
While @ work

Decided to take a Intro to Portfolio Risk Management in Python @DataCamp

Gonna apply the lessons to #Bitcoin price from Nov 2014 onwards /thread
@DataCamp General Bitcoin data so far:

Daily average return - 0.2406%

Implied average annualized return - 140.4271%

Standard deviation (volatility measure) - 3.9660

Graph below shows the daily return % on the x-axis plotted against the number of its occurrences on the y-axis $BTC
@DataCamp Does #Bitcoin follow a normal distribution?

For that we will need to measure the tilt of the distribution (Skewness) and the probability of outliers (Kurtosis)

Skewness - 0.2085

Kurtosis - 6.5293

This suggests that the is a greater probability of outliers & +ve returns
Read 27 tweets
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Crypto Entropy
@Crypt0Entropy
$BTC Daily - Pretty straight forward. This is a textbook area to long as a swing trader. People wait patiently for this opportunity. You enter the long, with proper R:R on the trade; adhere to the stop-loss. That simple. This is as solid an entry spot for longing as possible #btc
$BTC Support level currently at still looks fantastic for a swing long. We look for clues to give our bias. Bias here clearly favors long. Set a tight stop loss of a close below 7700 & play the math game here. R:R is your friend. #btc #bullishSwingPlay
People are freaking right now. But remember; anything to and above 7700 is just fine for now. Keep calm and let the numbers be your emotional control.
Read 15 tweets
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Blakk Bull [₿🔑⚡]
@BlakkBull
#BTC #Bitcoin Introduction Guide:

(1) Buy & Read: amazon.com
* "The Bitcoin Standard" by @saifedean

(2) Listen: stephanlivera.com/episode/1
* Interview by @stephanlivera with Saifedean Ammous (helps clarify "The Bitcoin Standard" for you)
(3) Read: medium.com/@vijayboyapati…
* @real_vijay's "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin"

(4) Listen: stephanlivera.com/episode/2
* @stephanlivera interviews Vijay Boyapati (author of "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin")
(5) Listen: stephanlivera.com/episode/71
* Stephan Livera gives a beginning education on true economics = "Austrian Economics"

(6) Listen: stephanlivera.com/episode/19
* Understanding the Bitcoin Ecosystem with Jeff @theonevortex
Read 10 tweets
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Lightning Master Hub ⚡ [BTC LTC]
@LN_Master_Hub
#bitcoin #LightningNetwork Multi-party channels (NOT channel factories) offers massive benefits over standard 2 party channels.
Fees to open are minimal.
Finding path becomes MUCH MUCH easier.
From a routing perspective, if you have 1 BTC in a MP-channel, it can be routed to
any other member of the MP channel. Paths becomes drastically shorter, and cheaper, while simultaneously increasing liquidity massively. It has a multiplicative factor on all liquidity.
Channel factories = BTC split amount x number of channels
MP-channel = a channel for the
full amount to every single other member. So, if I join a 1001 member MP channel with 1 bitcoin, it'll show up a 1,000 BTC of liquidity. The channel graph would show me having 1,000 channels with 1 BTC each, ready and willing. (PLUS the amount each other person has to me)
Read 23 tweets
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Chris Burniske
@cburniske
1/ Get ready for a predictable #crypto pattern: in the coming months, we will see an increasing number of #Bitcoin maximalists tormenting “altcoin investors” for straying from the mother ship.
2/ The maximalist drum will get louder as we go deeper into the bear market, with #bitcoin falling less than most other coins, and its dominance index growing. coinmarketcap.com/charts/#domina…
3/ #Bitcoin is the benchmark after all, the market beta of crypto, with most everything oscillating at a higher amplitude than $BTC.
Read 18 tweets

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