🚀Bitcoin $100K within 5 years
Based on a conservative estimate of Bitcoin’s Energy Value, it is likely that $BTC will 𝟭𝟬𝗫 within the next 5 years.
A thread forecasting Bitcoin’s long-term price using Energy Value.
1/n
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ7HnfCXkAYwy4H.jpg)
Bitcoin’s Energy Value has tracked Bitcoin’s price for the last 10 years.
Let’s use it to forecast price.
There are only two varying inputs in Energy Value:
⚡️Hash Rate
⚙️Mining Hardware efficiency
We can forecast each of these to predict BTC's Price.
2/n
Combining these estimates for HR and Efficiency, Bitcoin’s Energy Value should reach $𝟭𝟬𝟬𝗞 by 2025.
🧠 Sanity check: $100K Bitcoin = 1.8T market cap.
✅That's just 20% Gold’s market cap
5/n
While 6X fair value is a possibility, excessive swings will become more difficult with time due to the law of large numbers.
For the coming market cycle, I expect 2X fair value is definitely within the realm of possible.
7/n
☝️@Glassnode number of entities ATH
☝️New onramps: VAR management now possible w/ options. Prev. Bitcoin’s volatility blocked access to institutions
☝️Bitcoin up 100% in 2019, yet no growth in Google searches
☝️Number of 1+ BTC addresses ATH
☝️it's a QE hedge
9/n
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ7KsUjXYAEiVxB.png)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ7KsV9WAAYbVLp.png)
BTC uses ~0.3% of global elec.
With continued improvements in Energy Efficiency, $100K BTC will likely consume just 3X current energy.
A BTC market cap of $1.8T - 8T (=gold) could consume less than 1.5% of the world’s power.
10/n
Because the HR forecast is below the historic trendline, and the efficiency forecast is above the trendline, both forecasts can be considered historically conservative.
--> $100K Energy Value is conservative.
11/n
The ASIC chips caused a step-change improvement in Energy Efficiency in 2013/14, dropping Bitcoin’s Energy Value.
Should such an event occur again in the next 5 years (eg. Quantum computing), this would cause a 1-for-1 drop in predicted Energy Value.
12/n
Perhaps the 2 most critical risks to Bitcoin's future are:
1️⃣ Quantum Computing: breaking SHA-256 algorithm / accessing lost coins
2️⃣Government outlaw: while decreasing with time, major economic outlawing of BTC would curtail mass adoption and Energy Value
13/n
This forecast should be considered a “base case”.
All forecasts are wrong, some are useful.
I expect Bitcoin will hit at least $100,000 within 5yrs.
Based on historic BTC fundamentals, growth rates and market cycles this is a conservative estimate.
14/n
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ7M2FUW4AEGO3x.png)
Risks considered, Bitcoin is an attractive investment.
Each generation has a "once in a lifetime" opportunity.
Bitcoin was the best performing asset of the last 10yrs.
There are plenty of reasons to think the next 5 will be no different.
15/15
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ7NasLXUAAz1Ti.jpg)