With events (primaries, debates, etc.) piling on top of one another in rapid succession it's not super easy to characterize the trajectory of the polls right now.
Some questions I have:
Some questions I have:
BIDEN no longer seems to be falling. But is he rising? And if so, is it a broad-based rise, or concentrated among specific groups/in certain states?
BLOOMBERG clearly got the wind knocked out of his sails. Has he steadied himself? If not, is it a slow deflation or a crash?
BLOOMBERG clearly got the wind knocked out of his sails. Has he steadied himself? If not, is it a slow deflation or a crash?
With SANDERS, the long-term trajectory is obviously positive. But you can squint and make several different cases (rising, falling, steady) for the short term. And there's still a gap between his national polls (better) and state polls (less good). What's going on there?
WARREN *seems* to have gotten a bounce from *last* week's debate, but there wasn't really enough polling to know for sure. If she did get a bounce, has it continued, or did Nevada and *this* week's debate nullify it?
Finally, does BUTTIGIEG have pockets of strength on Super Tuesday where he's comfortably over 15% and will get delegates? This seems more likely to happen in some of the lesser-polled states (e.g. Maine, Utah, Tennessee) so we're flying a little blind.
Meanwhile in SOUTH CAROLINA, which looked like a near-tie after NH, we've suddenly got polls showing Biden up 7, 15, 18, 20 and 28 points, the latter of which is the most recent and shows him sweeping 100% of delegates.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
