I'm playing around with different scenarios using my crude delegate calculator, trying to figure out how far Biden will be behind Sanders after Tuesday. This is basically the *best* scenario I can get to for Biden: 
This would involve:
- CA looking like the CBS poll today; Biden gets 19% and Warren hits the threshold too.
- Biden gets wins across the South, some massive, and with Bloomberg missing thresholds
- Biden makes thresholds in MA, MN, and CO
- TX is close
- CA looking like the CBS poll today; Biden gets 19% and Warren hits the threshold too.
- Biden gets wins across the South, some massive, and with Bloomberg missing thresholds
- Biden makes thresholds in MA, MN, and CO
- TX is close
Working backward from Biden's absolute dream scenario, here's one where he makes the 15% threshold in CA, but the South is more of a mixed bag and he's missing thresholds in CO, MA etc
Now here's that same scenario except Biden *misses* the CA threshold and only Sanders and one other candidate hit it:
And finally, here's the same scenario except now *everyone* but Sanders misses the CA threshold:
Oh jeez, I forgot there’s one other scenario too
(I am an old person and don’t understand memes and gifs and the like but I see this picture passed around a lot on here and it makes me laugh so I posted it, in case this has confused anyone)
Updating this because Buttigieg is out and two polls now put Biden over 20% in CA. Likely he breaks the threshold - but by how much? If he ends up in the mid 20s, he could be within 40 delegates of Sanders nationally under the rosy scenario outlined here
