Full UK trade mandate for US FTA deal released here... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Government says US trade deal is “and FTA to level up the UK” because
- Scotland will benefit from more trade in salmon and whisky, and cashmere
- Midlands will benefit from more car exports (presumably a reference to JLR - currently low at 2.5%)
- Wales can export lamb
- Scotland will benefit from more trade in salmon and whisky, and cashmere
- Midlands will benefit from more car exports (presumably a reference to JLR - currently low at 2.5%)
- Wales can export lamb
(Important to note on car exports to US, tariff already low - it seems very difficult to see how the UK could quickly qualify for tariff free treatment based on low UK-originated parts (rules often origin) and Trump new trade deals even tougher on this...)
“The price the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table”... 
“Secure broad liberalisation of tariffs... reduction or elimination of tariffs for industrial/ agricultural goods” - which doesnt formally aim for tariff free trade... (eg the UK-EU mandate)
The top line of the Government’s assessment of boost to economy from US trade deal - could increase UK GDP in the long run (15 years)
“by around 0.07% (within a range of between 0.02% and 0.15%) [if some tariffs still in place]
or 0.16% (between 0.05% and 0.36%) [zero tariffs]”
“by around 0.07% (within a range of between 0.02% and 0.15%) [if some tariffs still in place]
or 0.16% (between 0.05% and 0.36%) [zero tariffs]”
This is a good chart on the average level of tariffs on UK-US trade - generally we, under EU CET, higher. Textiles and food the big ones.
But in general they are already pretty low going into US from UK...
But in general they are already pretty low going into US from UK...
All regions benefit, but in the first scenario, that benefit in the majority (8) nations/ regions is really v modest - over 15 years between 0 & 0.05% of size of regional economy.
Also this is exactly sort of chart which it is suggested we will not get for the larger UK-EU deal:
Also this is exactly sort of chart which it is suggested we will not get for the larger UK-EU deal:
Unexpected:
up to 0.5% fewer jobs, in long run in six sectors -
- other transport
- communications
- financial services
- insurance
- personal services
- retail
With 0 tariffs, fewer jobs also in
- agriculture
- manufacturing
- biz services
-fin services loses more than 0.5%
up to 0.5% fewer jobs, in long run in six sectors -
- other transport
- communications
- financial services
- insurance
- personal services
- retail
With 0 tariffs, fewer jobs also in
- agriculture
- manufacturing
- biz services
-fin services loses more than 0.5%
More jobs in energy in particular, auto, machinery, construction, other services, and with zero tariffs also for textiles, electronics and foods...
This reflects a “reallocation” of employment across sectors but is not assumed to affect overall employment and unemployment...
This reflects a “reallocation” of employment across sectors but is not assumed to affect overall employment and unemployment...
Impact of a US-UK trade deal is anticipated to disproportionately hit young people aged 16-24 year olds - who make up 21% of employment in sectors anticipated to see fewer jobs as a result of deal, rather than 12% in general
... so thats is something relevant for parents of the under 10s considering the job prospects of their kids in 2035 as a result of this deal. Or perhaps there are some mission-oriented 9 year olds, already pondering this...
Employment adjustment long term affecting 0.1% of workforce - 30,000 jobs shifting from financial services, insurance, communications, to energy, chemicals and cars, according to Government assessment...
