Here is the reality about corona: there is and remains an enormous amount we do not know or our knowledge is rapidly evolving day to day. Nobody anywhere in any country has a good handle on how wide spread it is. Reports on incubation vary widely. It just came out yesterday 1/n
that there were two different strains of corona. Mortality rates can vary widely. We have multiple pockets where we simply don't know how people came in contact with corona. Many of the early test kits had accuracy rates lower than flipping a coin. Now I am not trying to 2/n
defend or criticize anyone when I point out some of the vast gaping holes in what we know and there are many others, but merely to emphasize that we accept the limits of the knowledge we have about corona. Taleb makes a strong case that it is better to err on the side of 3/n
caution rather than laxity. As I have pointed out since the beginning, accept those limits and acknowledge making decisions in the shadow of great uncertainty noting the wide expected variance into the future of outcomes. Done.
