With Biden looking so close to wrapping this thing up, let's turn the board around for a moment and see if we can imagine how Sanders might fundamentally change the race yet again, this time to his advantage, and get back in the race.
In the broadest sense, I think there would actually need to be two components of a Sanders comeback, not just the fundamental shift I just alluded to.
I think the state of the race would also just not need to be as bad for Sanders as it currently appears, and I'll start there
I think the state of the race would also just not need to be as bad for Sanders as it currently appears, and I'll start there
There's very little post-SC polling, so our view of the race is mainly based on the hard results of Super Tues. Those results, as I interpret them, mean Biden was ahead by nearly 20 points nationally on 3/3--nearly a two-to-one lead. I think that would need to be a bit overstated
How could it be overstated?
Well here's something to mull: the three biggest swings/errors that I can remember in Dem primaries came after a candidate posted a decisive win that threatened to allow them to run away with the race (NH08, MI16, SC/ST20). Voters put on the breaks.
Well here's something to mull: the three biggest swings/errors that I can remember in Dem primaries came after a candidate posted a decisive win that threatened to allow them to run away with the race (NH08, MI16, SC/ST20). Voters put on the breaks.
With that in mind, perhaps there were voters who were generally undecided on Biden v. Sanders matchup, but voted Biden to make sure Sanders didn't run away with it. And with now Biden poised to run away with it, they might hope this balancing effort works their way
Do I think this is the true? I mean, not really. Could it be true? Well, I can't prove that it's not. What I do think: for Sanders to stay in the game, it might need to be.
Another way the Super Tues. results could be a little overstating Biden is if the early-election day split is more about moderates voting late than assumed.
I think it's obvious it's overwhelmingly shift, to be clear. But if it's 15% compositional, that helps Bernie a lot v. 0%
I think it's obvious it's overwhelmingly shift, to be clear. But if it's 15% compositional, that helps Bernie a lot v. 0%
A final way the Super. Tues results could be overstating Biden is if ME/MA/MN results aren't representative of the north, mainly bc of the possibility of weird homestate/endorsement effects in MA/MN.
This would be really important, since it's why we assume Biden's up big in MI
This would be really important, since it's why we assume Biden's up big in MI
If all of those three Super Tues mitigation factors were true, then maybe Biden's only favored by 7 in MI not 15; maybe IL/AZ are basically tilt Biden, not Biden up 10, and so on. Biden still a big favorite, but maybe that leaves Sanders within striking distance
Sanders would still need to change the race to his favor. In general there are three ways: debates, results, negative Biden coverage. None look promising for Sanders before Michigan, and a loss there would risk turning 'results' into a negative rather than a positive.
With that in mind, Team Sanders is making the only/correct play by going negative on Biden before Michigan. Attacking him on Social security and so on. Will it be enough, on time? I doubt it. But it's about all they can do before the next debate
If they can avoid a humiliating result on 3/10 in MI/ND/WA/ID, then that next debate, pre-FL/IL/OH/AZ gives them their moment to try and more fundamentally change the race. It might be too late at that point, and FL is going to be a landslide. But AZ/IL aren't huge stretches
Based on Twitter conduct, Team Sanders seems to be edging awfully close to staking the race on whether Biden can hold his own in a on-one-one debate. Without weighing in on the likelihood of that, it does seem fair to say that it might give voters pause if he couldn't
The risk to Sanders here is obvious: they've set a very, very low bar for Biden. But I don't think it's impossible to imagine narrow Sanders wins in IL and AZ if Biden has a really bad debate
This might be a bit like Clinton in TX/OH '08: narrow wins that keep the Sanders campaign alive even though the delegate race is basically over. But there are more delegates left than '08 at that point, and it probably keeps the race going until NY
Anyway, the whole starting premise here is that Biden is an overwhelming favorite. 538 has him at like 90% to win a majority. That strikes me as about right. But if Sanders is going to make a comeback, this seems like the basic way it would have to happen
