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"Forecasting interest rates has never been our game. Charlie and I have no idea what rates will average over the next year, or ten or thirty years. pundits who opine reveal by that very behavior far more about themselves than they reveal about the future." berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019lt…
"Neither Warren nor I have any record of making large profits from interest rate bets. In my lifetime, I’ve seen interest rates range from 1% to 20%. We try to operate so that really extreme interest rates in either direction wouldn’t be too bad for us." Charlie Munger May 2000
"Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.” [Only buy] a stock because you know a lot about it." Peter Lynch
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Charlie Munger:

"A lot of success in life and business comes from knowing what you want to avoid: early death, a bad marriage, etc. Just avoid things like racing trains to the crossing or [permanently damaging your lungs via a COVID-19 infection] etc."

"Invert!"
2/ "Figure out what you don’t want and avoid it and you’ll get what you do want.

Let me use a little inversion now. What will really fail in life? What do you want to avoid?

Approach how to create X by turning the question backward, that is, by studying how to create non-X."
3/ Charlie Munger: "Jonny Carson said he couldn’t tell the graduating class how to be happy, but he could tell them from personal experience how to guarantee misery." jamesclear.com/great-speeches…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
People out in crowded spaces by choice should win a Graham Award instead of a Darwin Award.

"The idea of a margin of safety, a Graham precept, will never be obsolete. One skill is knowing the edge of your own competency. It’s not a competency if you don’t know the edge of it."
"A margin of safety is [is intended to] allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.” "The river may overflow its banks only once or twice in a century, but you still buy flood insurance.” google.com/amp/s/fortune.…
What you do is rarely like a roulette wheel, which is risk. Insead the events that often have the biggest impact on what you do are part of the domains of uncertainty and ignorance. Once you internalize this mental model, you should increasingly value having a margin of safety.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Cash is "a call option with no expiration date, an option on every asset class, with no strike price. A call option that can be priced. When the option is cheap relative to the ability of cash to buy assets, he's willing to put up with low interest rates." google.com/amp/s/www.busi…
Cash isn't ever trash. The optionality of cash has a cost that varies and it's value also varies based on the levels of undertainty and ignorance involved. "Financial options may be expensive because people know they are options and someone is selling them and charging a price."
"Optionality can be found everywhere if you know how to look.”

"The most interesting options are free, or at the worst, cheap.” google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Matthew Gibson, MD
@DrMatthewGibson
Over the past few weeks I’ve fielded countless questions from worried parents and families about #CoronavirusUSA and #COVID. The amazing thing is most families have not been panicking but moreso just want their bearings. How worried should they be? What keeps kids safe? 1/
The first thing I’ve found is to acknowledge the fear. This is scary and there’s a lot of confusion and misinformation. That’s okay. Doctors are here to help and it’s okay to ask. The second is to not panic. People should be concerned, aware, but not panicked or dismissive. 2/
Next give reference points. This isn’t World War Z. It isn’t Ebola with its >50% mortality but it isn’t flu (as many say) with ~0.1%. Lots of data says ~2% but that’s probably a bit high because we’re testing so few. It depends on risk factors. Regardless don’t bulk buy TP. 3/
Read 13 tweets
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Kevin Milligan
@kevinmilligan
Read this thread for some insight into the actuarial change that drove the deficit up. The thing is, with super low interest rates, the NPV of pension liabilities is very volatile.

Small bends in the yield curve move the reported deficit by billions.
BTW, I've seen a lot of inaccurate reporting on this issue. The pension accounting change was *not* an increase in expenditures on pensions or a reflection of poor returns or because pension promises were increased. It is an accounting adjustment for future pension liability.
It's not that accounting adjustments are bad! The aim is to reflect all current information. That is a solid goal.

But the challenge here is the volatility. What the adjustment took away this year, a 100bps change in interest rates would give right back next year.
Read 7 tweets
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Harish Kawalkar
@kawalkar
Charlie Munger, nor I believe that rule to be sensible. Rather, both of us have
consistently thought that at Berkshire this mark-to-market change would produce what I described as “wild and
capricious swings in our bottom line.”

#WarrenBuffet 2018 Letter
Our advice? Focus on operating earnings, paying little attention to gains or losses of any variety. My saying
that in no way diminishes the importance of our investments to Berkshire.
#WarrenBuffet 2018 Letter
Over time, Charlie and I expect them to
deliver substantial gains, albeit with highly irregular timing.

#WarrenBuffet 2018 Letter
Read 28 tweets
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Molasses Taffy Allison
@fatnutritionist
Next year, it'll be 10 years since I started my website (fatnutritionist.com) and started writing my blog The Fat Nutritionist. At the time, I was a nutrition student and worked as a clinical diet tech (which is too boring to explain fully, but I loved it.)
There had been a whole generation (or two) of dietitians before me who did non-diet or HAES nutrition, but their work mostly wasn't promoted online or done via videoconferencing. There were a handful of nutritionists working online, but I was one of very, very few a decade ago.
In the past 10 years, and especially in the last couple of years, it seems like the non-diet RD thing has exploded into awareness, inside my field and outside of it. Meanwhile, as a fat person working in nutrition, I was terrified of my coworkers knowing what I really thought.
Read 28 tweets
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
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Baba97
@Baba9773
1) Many Deplorables are concerned with the fact that our President spoke about raising the % of Ethanol from 10% to 15%. Please keep in mind that it would be a few years away! I think our President is throwing RINOs at the meeting a bone to get them to say go after China, EU
2) NAFTA etc. because you are doing this for my state. It buys our President and his KILLERS two years to renegotiate trade deals where Agriculture will flourish like it is nobodies business. At which point the bone is no longer needed!
3) Trust the plan!

Our President said two beautiful words to his Secretary of Energy, “Energy Dominance”. Secretary Perry took those words and is completely running with them!

Read 7 tweets

Trending hashtags

#energy #OBOR #PAM #EU #geopoiltics #Eurasian #NutShellReport #ETFs #Uruguay #Barrstool #kingdollar #currency #ausbiz #NotJealousAtAll #GrowthSlowing #Finland #Yuan #ASEAN #TLT #Spain #metoo #TRS80CoCo #GOPquislings #Japan #WellMaybeALittleJealous

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