Good morning. Sunny days in Hong Kong - clear sky - can see the trees in Kowloon side from my mid-levels apartment.
Stability has been a destabilizing force isn't it? Look at the violence on top of a market that has been only up (meaning equity risk premium not priced till now)
Stability has been a destabilizing force isn't it? Look at the violence on top of a market that has been only up (meaning equity risk premium not priced till now)
Word of the quarter: INFECTED!🤮🥶
This is just one quarter of investing (if u invest in oil then yesterday was brutal for just a 1-day move, although equities in high single digits). Talk about equity risk premium. Remember equity price chasing commodity prices a month ago
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This is just one quarter of investing (if u invest in oil then yesterday was brutal for just a 1-day move, although equities in high single digits). Talk about equity risk premium. Remember equity price chasing commodity prices a month ago
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Commodity & fixed income ahead of equities in pricing in corona virus. Note that on 28 Jan 2020, SPX was still IMMUNE & up!!!
Look at it now. Look at global equities. Not divorced from earnings
Look at it now. Look at global equities. Not divorced from earnings
This virus infects fun, it infects people, it infects livelihood, health and risk taking behavior.
"The feedback loop is emerging," said @Trinhnomics . "As China recovers & resumes its supply chains, it will be hit by demand shocks from its own subdued demand and an increasingly infected world."
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Nikkei falls today again after an already bad day on JPY strength and all sorts of problems - supply & demand, cyclical & structural, etc etc.
Has erased Abenomic gains & kind of a combo of U-shaped & L-shaped or M-shaped in the making 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Has erased Abenomic gains & kind of a combo of U-shaped & L-shaped or M-shaped in the making 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
China CPI & PPI in 30 mins (soft data out of AU not good today). Markets will watch for the supply & demand shocks in the CPI data. It will be relevant for not just China & also implications for the region & world as we're increasingly infected too.
Note that these things haven't taken into account government response. Last night, after facing a lot of pressure, @realDonaldTrump finally takes the virus impact seriously & says will work on payroll tax cut on sectors hit by virus. Suga of Japan saying something about emergency
Note that Trump's tone is changing & is sounding more sympathetic: said he wants to help hourly wage earners who could lose pay by staying home “so they don’t get penalized for something that’s not their fault.”
China CPI same as expected (5.2%) but PPI worse at -0.4%YoY from 0.1%
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Markets soothed by not too bad data out of China (CPI not too high (fear of stagflation) & PPI wise) & especially on soothing words of Pres Trump seeming to read the air a bit better regarding people's economic concerns & also this morning Suga. Let's see the actions. Hopism back
BOJ Kuroda: BOJ could have paper losses on its ETF purchase if Nikkei falls around 19k.
Tis is the central bank of Japan. Why are they buying ETFs? What is the purpose? If markets want to sell & knows there is a buyer, will sell into the BOJ
Nuts that CB allowed to buy ETFs👈🏻
Tis is the central bank of Japan. Why are they buying ETFs? What is the purpose? If markets want to sell & knows there is a buyer, will sell into the BOJ
Nuts that CB allowed to buy ETFs👈🏻
Stability is destabilizing, said Minsky 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻.Btw, it's not a Minsky Moment, it's years & decades to get to the violence in markets we see.
Why? Because stability is DESTABILIZING!!! BOJ buying ETF is one such example.
Why? Because stability is DESTABILIZING!!! BOJ buying ETF is one such example.
When CBs, govs, regulators etc take actions to keep the eco from having a recession/downturn, what they do is the SUPPRESS VOL but that suppression causes markets to MISPRICE RISK & so too much RISK TAKING (FOMO) & we got what people call Minsky Moments but really MINSKY DECADES.
MINSKY DECADES 2009-2020 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 (the moment is wrong because the FOMO trade takes decades to get there but the moment is the violent unwinding).
We didn't get there overnight. MINKSY DECADE guys. Not years, DECADE.
Stability is destabilizing.
We didn't get there overnight. MINKSY DECADE guys. Not years, DECADE.
Stability is destabilizing.
Btw, the WHO is now doing the blame game too (obvs defecting the blame from itself to now how others could have prevented this pandemic). @DrTedros said that he threat of a pandemic has become very real but it would be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled. Urgh
When u see leaders of the world doing the blame game (China on it's not us & we're not the source etc, the WHO on the rest of the world, Trump on Fed etc), then you have to consider, WHY ARE THEY NOT TALKING ABOUT SOLUTIONS BUT PLAYING THE BLAME GAME???
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Trump aid package to leave out the travel industry for now.
Urgh, that's like front-line industry. Hopefully this is just a draft. Who are his advisors??? I'm volunteering.
Urgh, that's like front-line industry. Hopefully this is just a draft. Who are his advisors??? I'm volunteering.
