A couple of key takeaways from our analysis of early COVID-19 dynamics in Wuhan:
1. We estimated that the control measures introduced - unprecedented interventions that will have had a huge social and psychological toll – reduced transmission by around 55% in space of 2 weeks 1/
1. We estimated that the control measures introduced - unprecedented interventions that will have had a huge social and psychological toll – reduced transmission by around 55% in space of 2 weeks 1/
2. There's evidence that the vast majority of the population is still susceptible in Wuhan - we estimated around 95% at end of January. As soon as control measures are lifted, there is the risk of new introduced cases - and another outbreak. Source: thelancet.com/journals/lanin… 2/
It's easy to say 'let's just do what Wuhan did', but the measures there have involved a change to daily life that really has been unimaginable in scale and impact. And as we've seen, China cannot sustain them indefinitely. 3/
Countries like Hong Kong and Singapore, which for so long have managed to contain COVID-19, now seem to be seeing a rise in transmission, as infections continue to be introduced. (Source: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…) 4/ 
There isn't going to be an easy solution to COVID-19. Among some extremely difficult options, we have to pick the most effective, sustainable way to minimise risk of overwhelming health system - and impact on the people most at risk. 5/5
