The city of Wuhan, China, where #COVIDー19 started, waited weeks before acknowledging human-to-human transmission and taking measures to control it. Wuhan thus experienced an out-of-control epidemic that overwhelmed the health care system.
Other cities in China watched Wuhan’s experience and imposed strict controls at a much earlier stage in their epidemic: They closed schools, sharply limited social contact, and traced and isolated cases and contacts. These early interventions dramatically slowed transmission.
These experiences, & historical parallels, like 1918 flu, show early and sustained imposition of measures to limit social contact will slow the epidemic. This is desirable for many reasons — fewer total people get infected in a slowly moving epidemic... bostonglobe.com/2020/03/11/opi…
A controlled epidemic has a lower peak, reducing strain on health systems. From the perspective of disease control, every effort should be made, as soon as possible, to slow the spread of the virus and flatten the epidemic curve.
⚠️Many kinds of mitigation measures are needed immediately:
-implement social distancing
-reducie social contacts to slow transmission
-#CancelEverything: conventions, parades, sports events, large public gatherings Efforts to reduce contacts should focus on the most vulnerable
-implement social distancing
-reducie social contacts to slow transmission
-#CancelEverything: conventions, parades, sports events, large public gatherings Efforts to reduce contacts should focus on the most vulnerable
#WorkFromHome , stay home when sick, hand-wash, cover coughs are measures that can be taken. Suspending public transportation, houses of worship, and other close quarters may soon be needed.
Currently, we have little idea what locations in the #US are hotspots of transmission - testing has been so limited that we know about cases mainly after someone gets so sick that they are tested. For now, the hotspots are the places that have done the most testing. -@mlipsitch
On school closings:
The decision on school closure will come down to a choice between two bad options.
Closing schools has multiple costs and disproportionately harm the least advantaged.
The decision on school closure will come down to a choice between two bad options.
Closing schools has multiple costs and disproportionately harm the least advantaged.
Every intervention we try will be testing new waters, & evaluation is critical to make sure that, as we impose costs on society, we are getting benefits of disease control. Just as important as when to act is when to let up on control measures. ⚠️But we must act now. -@mlipsitch
