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There's a reason we ask students to do lit reviews, rather than wade into field without evidence base. There are many contact tracing studies out there, which give insight into why hasn't worked well so far for COVID in Europe/US:pnas.org/content/101/16…
thelancet.com/journals/langl… 1/
Also, the Imperial model is individual-based with contact-specific interactions, not 'SIR differential equations' as critics claim. There's plenty to debate about model assumptions, but it's bizarre to see such strong critique of paper people apparently haven't read methods of 2/
We need innovation/improvement to implement large-scale effective isolation/contact tracing globally, but it will be harder than writing a one pager on 'obvious' solution. Here are some more refs...
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 3/3
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
Useful analysis by @bencowling88 @gmleunghku et al of changes in case definition during the early COVID-19 outbreak in China, and what the underlying outbreak may have actually looked like medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 1/
In our early outbreak analysis (thelancet.com/journals/lanin…), there were clear differences between initial and later data in China, which is why we jointly analysed multiple datasets from within and outside Wuhan. This new study nicely illustrates why this was sensible approach. 2/
The authors also note reporting changes could have biased some early transmission estimates: "if we had estimated the exponential growth in the epidemic curve without accounting for the changes in case definitions, we would have substantially overestimated the growth rate" 3/
Read 4 tweets
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
Recent estimates (including our analysis led by @timwrussell: eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…) have suggested 0.5–1% of COVID-19 infections may potentially be fatal overall. Some have interpreted this to mean COVID could be similar to flu, but they're making a crucial mistake... 1/
To make a comparison with influenza, we need to look at all influenza *infections* (including asymptomatic ones), then compare with deaths. Remember, in epidemiology, always make sure you're comparing what you think you're comparing: 2/
So how often do people get infected with influenza (with or without symptoms)? A few years ago, I looked at this with @SRileyIDD & others – using serological data we estimated 40-50% of younger groups were infected each year, and 15-20% of older groups. journals.plos.org/plosbiology/ar… 3/
Read 6 tweets
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
This Oxford modelling study has been getting a lot of attention, with suggestions that it implies there has already been substantial amount of COVID-19 infection in UK. But it's important to take a look behind the media headlines... dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9… 1/
The analysis focuses on deaths in UK and Italy. The challenge in any outbreak is that multiple scenarios might be consistent with a timeseries of deaths viewed in isolation. Are there lots of infections and a low severity? Or fewer infections and a higher severity? 2/
The authors suggest that multiple scenarios could be consistent with the number of deaths reported, including ones in which there have been a lot of infections. Their figure below shows some possibilities. But remember, this is just focusing on the death data... 3/
Read 9 tweets

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Varun
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Few years ago, we were expecting our 1st+only child. The happiness gave way to a heartbreaking news from doctors - there was a risk: the baby might be born 4 months before due date

That threw us into crisis mode, and has lit a spark which *will* change the world for the better..
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2.🗣️📢Alert World leaders, citizens of the world, is attempting a coup d'état in #Bolivia.
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44. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
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Ositadimma Amakeze
@OsitaAmakeze
Do you think we earn this: 21st Century skills intervention & Technical/Vocational Education Intervention as #NGO in schools?
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Use #TeamYowamca as Name of Implementing Organisation
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Richard James
@RichJamesBits
I have reached a whole new level of #PISSEDOFF.

I didnt think such a #dark and #scary state, or level, could be reached. It may top 12-14-17's causation. It's. That. Bad. So, I've prepared a statement...

docs.google.com/document/d/1_J…

#PascoSheriff #HaveYouAllNoShame @CigarCityBeer
Dear @FBI,
I must implore you ask your colleauges in @FBITampa to help research this new level of #PISSEDOFFNESS. As locals, they may offer a special indepth knowledge of this new level I have reached. This is not fair & law enforcement must #investigate. No one deserves this.
This is my #apogee of #Pissedoffness.
If #motherfuckers & #tears werent a noticable level.
If #HUSH or #INTIMIDATION tactics being deployed didnt strike a chord.
If #EVIDENCE, PROOF, or 30k Bonds didnt #WOW YOU.
If posting mom with no shred of investigatable value wasnt enough...
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