Thread by @blinkinriley

A short thread on my thoughts on COVID-19, and I promise I will get back to stuff like OU stats and Bedlam Facts:

First, a bit on the seriousness of COVID-19

On Feb 15th, there were 15 cases in the US
..1 week later that had doubled (35)
..1 week later that had doubled (68)
..1 week later that had increased six fold (435)
..less than a week later (today) that had increased four fold (1,697)

On March 1st, 90% of closed cases in the US were recoveries and 10% were deaths

...Five days later, 50% were recoveries and 50% were deaths

...Six days later, 43% were recoveries and 57% were deaths

Even if confirmed cases are only accounting for a third of actual worldwide cases, that means the mortality is still ~1.2% which is about 12 times as deadly as the flu

To surpass the CDC's highest yearly death total of the flu, which was 61,000 in 2017-2018, at a conservative estimated mortality rate of 1%, COVID-19 would only have to spread to <2% of the US.

Be aware that the framing of statistics can have a big effect on how they are received. "99% of people will be fine!" sounds a lot less threatening than "1 in 100 people will die."

So please take effort to consider diff framings of stats (mine too) when they are presented to you

Precaution taken to curb the spread of COVID-19 doesn't not diminish the importance of the toll that seasonal flu takes each year.

These are not ideas to be pitted against each other, but rather should be considered as parts of the same whole of public health.

If you are worried that these precautions exhibit a lack of importance put on deaths from seasonal flu, know that the same precautions used to slow the spread of COVID-19 are exactly the precautions that are effective in slowing the spread of flu and other viral infections.

We can limit all of these deaths through taking these extra precautions.

I am personally a bit upset at seeing the opposite as well.

The amount of people I've seen acting so blase about the potential of the additional deaths of thousands of people is staggering.

Deaths from COVID-19 should not be compared to deaths from flu. They should be considered as IN ADDITION to deaths from flu. And slowing one, slows the other.

Most people will be fine if they are diagnosed with COVID-19.

But the more people that get it, the more likely it is to spread to people who will not be fine.

Protecting yourself literally acts to protect others.

Panic is never helpful.

But we do need to differentiate between panic and precaution.

Panic is hundreds of people waiting in line at Costco to get toilet paper despite being told to avoid large groups.

Precaution is reducing contact between people by postponing large gatherings and limiting travel between infected and non-infected communities.

Precautions maybe unprecedented, but an unprecedented decision is not necessarily a panicked decision.

To end, this is a serious situation, that if not slowed, could overwhelm current medical capacity and turn into something much worse.

You don't have to pick between panic and nonchalance. There is a middle ground, and I hope that we all find it.

Sources for the stats were CDC and WHO

Stay safe, everyone.