The government modelling. "In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality." (1)
The interventions they have modelled. Which don't include community mobilisation, population surveillance and local testing. And making assumptions plucked out of the air about effectiveness. (2) 
Their assumptions of impact. (3)
So why do we believe these frightening hypothetical models when China and Korea, using WHO principles (test in populations, trace contacts, isolation, social distancing and above all, community mobilsation) have stopped the epidemic in 7 weeks? (4)
This team are very clever mathematical modellers. But none has managed an epidemic. They haven't modelled the most important WHO responses. You don't use weather forecasters to manage your hurricane response. (5)
The UK has NOT done and certainly not continued population surveillance and testing and contact tracing. Health workers cannot get tests. Our local authorities, voluntary sector and communities have not been properly mobilised. (6)
Tests per million of population. Korea 4100, Hong Kong 2134, Italy 1005, UK 387, USA 26. We must ramp up tests in the community immediately, not just through hospitals and surgeries. Ask China to help? They know how to do it. And we need tests for health workers NOW. (7)
Social distancing alone will have little impact without communities mobilised and population surveillance so we know what is happening. And data needs to be collected and shared online so we know where the hotspots are. What are the data plans? (8)
And we need a plan for sampling, collecting data from communities, sharing information about population clusters, and how this will be analysed for interventions in different areas. This is where the modellers/data people come in.
