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How many are expected to die from COVID-19?

Here is what ‘superforecasters’ think.
This is the group of the most accurate 2% of forecasters from a large-scale, 4-year forecasting tournament.

Most (45%) expect between 800,000 and 8 million deaths.

goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboar…
This is within the range of the large global causes of deaths.

The range from suicides to cancer globally as the chart shows.

For more see our work on the causes of deaths:
ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death
Important to keep in mind that we should also expect an impact on other causes of deaths.

Because healthcare capacity for other health issues is limited or because people that need treatment do not seek treatment as they are afraid to get infected.

See ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
👉Here you find our up to date statistics until now OurWorldInData.org/Coronavirus
––––

👇 Below you find my thoughts on what’s ahead: two possible futures.

Very different futures.

Let’s call it Pandemics, Fast and Slow
The COVID19 pandemic has begun, how it ends is now in all of our hands.

These early days are the most important days, because how a pandemic ends depends on how it begins.
Why are these days so important?

And what can we all – including you and me – do?
Read 33 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
Is it actually possible to #FlattenTheCurve?

Yes, St Louis did it before.
In the terrible pandemic of 1918.

The chart shows their success:
* Philadelphia downplayed it and held a parade in 1918
* St. Louis canceled gatherings and flattened the curve

pnas.org/content/104/18…
The whole paper is very relevant for today and very interesting.
It is open-access here pnas.org/content/104/18…

On my point above here is a key passage from this research.
And important to note that according to this research not only the peak mortality was lower, but the total mortality over the entire epidemic was lower.

It wasn’t that deaths were just postponed.
Read 3 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
1/ Many of you ask me why I take the COVID-19 outbreak so seriously.

Current numbers of cases and deaths are *not* why.

👇 A thread on why I’m worried and what I do personally in this situation.
2/ What concerns me is the *growth rate* of cases & deaths in countries that do not have containment measures in place.

The doubling time is the metric I am focusing on now in our work
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Outside of China the number of confirmed cases doubled every 4 days.
3/ Concerns for my personal health are not why I am worried.

I think there is a good chance I might get sick with it one day.
But I am fortunately not that old and I am healthy.

I worry for others and about the possibly large effect of this outbreak on the economy.
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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Anthony Costello
@globalhlthtwit
My longish thread on the Academy of Medical Science News Briefing with Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty last night, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Global Health Lab chaired by Richard Horton and Prof Martin McKee. panopto.lshtm.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/… (1)
The News briefing. Medics/scientists are used to robust debate. It should not descend into personal abuse. For example, I’m happy to be told I’m ‘utterly wrong’ and to debate about strategies. Debate is the essence of evaluation and finding a way forward. But no abuse.(2)
Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance have an unenviable job, as do the 20 or so members of the SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group of Experts). They welcome debate and robust argument. They face extremely complex issues and difficult decisions. We must help them (3)
Read 25 tweets
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CLLynch
@lynchauthor
This is the kind of attitude that gets people killed.

Here is how I explained it to my nine year old:

Ebola and other plagues are usually easy to catch and stop. They are deadly, but that very deadliness makes them stand out. We spot them. We stop them.

#COVID is different.
#Covid ‘s mildness is the most dangerous aspect of it.

Many people who catch it don’t even experience symptoms.

Children, who cough on everything and never wash their hands CARRY IT WITHOUT SYMPTOMS.

When symptoms do show, they come two weeks later. Two WEEKS.
That means that for every sick person we see and test and hospitalize, there are probably a hundred people walking around feeling just fine, infecting other people who feel just fine, who infect OTHER people who feel JUST FINE.

Then two weeks later... KABOOM
Read 24 tweets
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T Lloyd
@T_Lloyd
Putting my sociologist hat on. For those who are tired of the science, the numbers, and the really big words; I wanna explain this in layman's term.

The problem is not so much the virus, the problem is US (double entendre)
The U.S. has a completely different cultural system than China. We are not as community-focused, family oriented, or obedient. We're not discussing if that's good or bad, only talking about WHAT IS.

What we lack in those 3 areas directly contributes to the spread of #COVIDー19
Americans don't know HOW to self-quarantine because those 3 factors are not top of mind. We don't inherently think about our neighbors. A lot of us don't even know their names.

We're not thinking about elders b/c we weren't taught that taking care of them was OUR responsibility.
Read 13 tweets
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Matt Beebe
@VoteBeebe
Some thoughts on our collective reaction to #COVIDー19/#CoronaVirus:

Those who think the health effects have been overblown are likely right. It’s NOT likely as deadly as some have predicted & it’s NOT going to be as widespread in the US as it has been in other countries 1/
But here’s the rub: we’re still *under reacting*. We need to continue closing down large events, suspending schools, working from home — we should be seeking & embracing a month of *social isolation* not just *social distancing* Why?
2/
The issue w/ #CoronaVirus is how fast it spreads. It is going to overwhelm our institutions. Period.

The cascade of chaos will cause far more suffering than the virus. We need to throttle this thing. We can’t snuff it out entirely, but minimizing the impact is priority
3/
Read 5 tweets
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Robᵉʳᵗ Graham😷
@ErrataRob
What do computer viruses teach us about #COVIDー19? I don't think anything, but in this thread I'm going to try to draw corollaries anyway, because cyber.
"Don't touch your face" is stupid advice, just like "don't open suspicious attachments" or "don't click on suspicious links in emails". Email is designed to have attachments and links, asking people to not use the product as designed is nonsense.
This video went viral (sic) of a health official advising people to not touch their face as she, and the people behind her, touch their faces. People are going to click on email links and touch their faces.
Read 16 tweets
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Antonio Gramsci
@timeofmonsters_
Here’s a brief thread on the #DiamondPrincess. I think it the data from this cruise ship is the most important out there. It has reliable data and the largest sample size. Here’s what I think we know and do not know and what conclusions we can and can’t draw.
To the extent possible the facts are from Princess’ website (princess.com) and where needed data was not available there I got it from what I believe are more credible news sites.
Day 1 (January 20, 2020): 3,711 people (2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew) left Tokyo (Yokohama) on the Diamond Princess.
Read 14 tweets

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#COVIDー19 #returned #Damascus #Iran #VladimirPutin #Lombardia #SARSCoV2 #combatants #Invasion #BeSafeEveryone #Sanaa #UNSC #SaveYemen #HTS #foreign #WarCrime #group #illegally #Afrin #Mourek #allies #Qasad #Illinois #Sweden #Gaslighting

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