👉Here you find our up to date statistics until now OurWorldInData.org/Coronavirus
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👇 Below you find my thoughts on what’s ahead: two possible futures.
Very different futures.
Let’s call it Pandemics, Fast and Slow
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👇 Below you find my thoughts on what’s ahead: two possible futures.
Very different futures.
Let’s call it Pandemics, Fast and Slow
The COVID19 pandemic has begun, how it ends is now in all of our hands.
These early days are the most important days, because how a pandemic ends depends on how it begins.
These early days are the most important days, because how a pandemic ends depends on how it begins.
Why are these days so important?
And what can we all – including you and me – do?
And what can we all – including you and me – do?
The 2 possible futures for this pandemic are extremely different
Pandemic, fast: Without counter measures the rate of infection remains high. The number of people infected with COVID19 rises fast.
Pandemic, slow: With the right *early* responses we can slow down the pandemic.
Pandemic, fast: Without counter measures the rate of infection remains high. The number of people infected with COVID19 rises fast.
Pandemic, slow: With the right *early* responses we can slow down the pandemic.
Why is SLOW so much better than FAST?
3 big reasons:
A] We can prepare. Hospitals, doctors, infrastructure etc. can get ready.
B] We give scientists more time to develop the technology we all need now: better tests, medication, and – in the best scenario – a vaccine.
3 big reasons:
A] We can prepare. Hospitals, doctors, infrastructure etc. can get ready.
B] We give scientists more time to develop the technology we all need now: better tests, medication, and – in the best scenario – a vaccine.
(Both of these reasons – better preparation as well as better medical knowledge and technology – mean that you do not want to get infected early in this pandemic.)
The third reason:
C] A fast pandemic is terrible because at its peak a very large number of people will be sick *at the same time*.
These large numbers of sick people can exceed the capacity of the healthcare system (as the illustration shows).
C] A fast pandemic is terrible because at its peak a very large number of people will be sick *at the same time*.
These large numbers of sick people can exceed the capacity of the healthcare system (as the illustration shows).
A doctor can help 10,000 patients one after the other.
But a doctor can not help 10,000 patients when they are all sick at the same time.
But a doctor can not help 10,000 patients when they are all sick at the same time.
A slow pandemic on the other hand means that we spread it out and thereby reduce the peak of the epidemic
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In a slow pandemic the number of people who will be sick at the same time will not be as high and can remain within the capacity of the healthcare system.
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In a slow pandemic the number of people who will be sick at the same time will not be as high and can remain within the capacity of the healthcare system.
This logic – summarized in the illustration below – is the logic of #FlattenTheCurve:
By slowing the spread we reduce the peak and can care for all the people that need care.
[more here: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#st…]
By slowing the spread we reduce the peak and can care for all the people that need care.
[more here: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#st…]
The question is: how do we avoid a fast pandemic?
By reducing the speed of infection *early* in the pandemic.
Slowing down the pandemic is the goal of all of us right now.
By reducing the speed of infection *early* in the pandemic.
Slowing down the pandemic is the goal of all of us right now.
Slowing down the pandemic simply means two things:
1 – Not getting infected.
2 – Not infecting others.
1 – Not getting infected.
2 – Not infecting others.
How can all of us – you and me – do our part to flatten the curve?
As always, there is not just one way to make progress.
I’ll list 8 ways to make progress against COVID19.
As always, there is not just one way to make progress.
I’ll list 8 ways to make progress against COVID19.
1] Wash your hands – in 2020 that’s your superpower.
But many of us (including me) don’t know how to actually use this superpower.
But many of us (including me) don’t know how to actually use this superpower.
To get the right mindset for your most important job of 2020:
Wash your hands like you just cut some chillies and now you put in your contacts lenses.
Or for those who can relate to it: Wash your hands like you’ve just changed the diapers.
Wash your hands like you just cut some chillies and now you put in your contacts lenses.
Or for those who can relate to it: Wash your hands like you’ve just changed the diapers.
2020 will be the year of clean (but very dry) hands.
2] No hand-shakes
In non-pandemic times, I’m quite the hugger. But for the weeks ahead: no hugs, no handshake – in 2020 they are a sign that you have a poor grasp of mathematics and science.
In non-pandemic times, I’m quite the hugger. But for the weeks ahead: no hugs, no handshake – in 2020 they are a sign that you have a poor grasp of mathematics and science.
3] Stay home, if you can.
Some of us can’t stay home.
Doctors, cashiers, bakers and many others have to go to work.
That’s why – if *you* are fortunate enough to be able to stay at home – you should.
Some of us can’t stay home.
Doctors, cashiers, bakers and many others have to go to work.
That’s why – if *you* are fortunate enough to be able to stay at home – you should.
The reason to stay home is not necessarily that you are scared for your own health, but to protect those who *need* to be out.
Stay home so that the doctors, cashiers, and bakers can be out.
You depend on them.
They depend on you not getting them sick.
Stay home so that the doctors, cashiers, and bakers can be out.
You depend on them.
They depend on you not getting them sick.
(I wrote a related thread some days ago in which I shared how my team and I are doing it.)
4] Sick leave – Make it possible for sick people to stay at home
#1 If you are an employer please protect us all and pay your employees when they are sick.
#2 If you are a politician then work on a law that guarantees that right for all.
#3 If you are a voter, vote for #2.
#1 If you are an employer please protect us all and pay your employees when they are sick.
#2 If you are a politician then work on a law that guarantees that right for all.
#3 If you are a voter, vote for #2.
5] Cancel events or don’t go
Where many people get together, one infected person can infect many people.
If you can avoid it, don’t go to big events.
If you run big events consider canceling them.
Where many people get together, one infected person can infect many people.
If you can avoid it, don’t go to big events.
If you run big events consider canceling them.
I can imagine how much this sucks, but what we are all learning these days is that pandemics really do suck.
And while the price is high, it has a big upside: a slow pandemic.
And while the price is high, it has a big upside: a slow pandemic.
Evidence from past pandemics showed that the cancelation of public events and school closures worked and saved lives.
6] Risk communication and public awareness
One reason I’m a bit optimistic about the weeks ahead: I see many institutions and researchers who do an amazing job in communicating the risks of the COVID19 pandemic.
If you find good work consider sharing it.
One reason I’m a bit optimistic about the weeks ahead: I see many institutions and researchers who do an amazing job in communicating the risks of the COVID19 pandemic.
If you find good work consider sharing it.
What is especially important is to communicate the symptoms of COVID19.
The most common ones are a fever (almost 90% of cases) and a dry cough (2 out of 3).
A runny nose is not common for COVID19 cases
[See: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#th…]
The most common ones are a fever (almost 90% of cases) and a dry cough (2 out of 3).
A runny nose is not common for COVID19 cases
[See: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#th…]
7] Science & Technology
Humanity made a lot of progress against big problems before (see the link if you have doubts).
Research and technology were often key to our success.
ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-g…
Humanity made a lot of progress against big problems before (see the link if you have doubts).
Research and technology were often key to our success.
ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-g…
History showed again and again that technological innovations can be game changers.
Big innovations now could make all the difference between a fast pandemic and a slow one.
So, in these corona days too, we can hope – but not expect – that science comes to the rescue.
Big innovations now could make all the difference between a fast pandemic and a slow one.
So, in these corona days too, we can hope – but not expect – that science comes to the rescue.
The biggest game changer would probably be a vaccine against COVID19.
But vaccines are hard and take a lot of time to develop.
But vaccines are hard and take a lot of time to develop.
As I said above, slowing down the pandemic is also important because it gives scientists the weeks and months they need to make progress towards the scientific breakthrough that we all hope for.
8] More testing
Testing is crucial because it allows those who are sick to *know* they are sick.
This means they can decide to stay home.
Which means they won’t infect others.
Testing is crucial because it allows those who are sick to *know* they are sick.
This means they can decide to stay home.
Which means they won’t infect others.
Unfortunately many countries are currently slow in rolling out the COVID19 testing.
But South Korea shows how much is already possible now.
Other countries look very bad in comparison with South Korea.
See @EOrtizOspina's post below.
But South Korea shows how much is already possible now.
Other countries look very bad in comparison with South Korea.
See @EOrtizOspina's post below.
I hope I gave some idea of why a slow pandemic would be a *much* better future than a fast pandemic.
And I hope that I convince some of you that we don’t have to accept a fast pandemic as our fate.
We know how to slow the speed of infection and flatten the curve. Let’s do it.
And I hope that I convince some of you that we don’t have to accept a fast pandemic as our fate.
We know how to slow the speed of infection and flatten the curve. Let’s do it.
