1/ Many of you ask me why I take the COVID-19 outbreak so seriously.
Current numbers of cases and deaths are *not* why.
👇 A thread on why I’m worried and what I do personally in this situation.
Current numbers of cases and deaths are *not* why.
👇 A thread on why I’m worried and what I do personally in this situation.
2/ What concerns me is the *growth rate* of cases & deaths in countries that do not have containment measures in place.
The doubling time is the metric I am focusing on now in our work
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Outside of China the number of confirmed cases doubled every 4 days.
The doubling time is the metric I am focusing on now in our work
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Outside of China the number of confirmed cases doubled every 4 days.
3/ Concerns for my personal health are not why I am worried.
I think there is a good chance I might get sick with it one day.
But I am fortunately not that old and I am healthy.
I worry for others and about the possibly large effect of this outbreak on the economy.
I think there is a good chance I might get sick with it one day.
But I am fortunately not that old and I am healthy.
I worry for others and about the possibly large effect of this outbreak on the economy.
4/ I'm worried for 3 groups:
– Countries that do not take it seriously
– Elderly people
[because the case fatality rate for old people is high –> see chart below]
– Poorer people
[because of the lack of resources to care for severe cases –> see all of OurWorldInData.org]
– Countries that do not take it seriously
– Elderly people
[because the case fatality rate for old people is high –> see chart below]
– Poorer people
[because of the lack of resources to care for severe cases –> see all of OurWorldInData.org]
5/ I don’t think it will necessarily be terrible.
It is up to us right now.
We've been successful in making progress against terrible problems.
The way forward is to take problems seriously, study them, and do what is right.
My view:
ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-g…
It is up to us right now.
We've been successful in making progress against terrible problems.
The way forward is to take problems seriously, study them, and do what is right.
My view:
ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-g…
6/ Early in an outbreak, containment is key.
Slowing the rate of infection means that the number of people who are sick at the *same time* does not exceed the capacity of the health system.
[I wish more people understood the intention of containment.]
Slowing the rate of infection means that the number of people who are sick at the *same time* does not exceed the capacity of the health system.
[I wish more people understood the intention of containment.]
7/ For that reason I do what I can to not get infected.
1] I wash my hands thoroughly. Much more often than I feel I should!
2] I don’t touch my face.
3] And I know the symptoms and how common each of them is (see my chart below).
1] I wash my hands thoroughly. Much more often than I feel I should!
2] I don’t touch my face.
3] And I know the symptoms and how common each of them is (see my chart below).
4] I work from home.
And I asked everyone in the team to work from home so that we do our part to slow down the rise of the epidemic curve.
If you can stay at home do it, it is the prosocial thing to do.
Do it for the others (doctors, police…) who cannot stay at home right now.
And I asked everyone in the team to work from home so that we do our part to slow down the rise of the epidemic curve.
If you can stay at home do it, it is the prosocial thing to do.
Do it for the others (doctors, police…) who cannot stay at home right now.
end] I worked through the weekends, woke up at 5 every morning and worked all day. So yes I take it very serious.
Thank you all for your many messages.
Please keep letting me know your ideas of what is needed and how I can improve my work!
We can do this.
Thank you all for your many messages.
Please keep letting me know your ideas of what is needed and how I can improve my work!
We can do this.
