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Is it actually possible to #FlattenTheCurve?

Yes, St Louis did it before.
In the terrible pandemic of 1918.

The chart shows their success:
* Philadelphia downplayed it and held a parade in 1918
* St. Louis canceled gatherings and flattened the curve

pnas.org/content/104/18…
The whole paper is very relevant for today and very interesting.
It is open-access here pnas.org/content/104/18…

On my point above here is a key passage from this research.
And important to note that according to this research not only the peak mortality was lower, but the total mortality over the entire epidemic was lower.

It wasn’t that deaths were just postponed.
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#FlattenTheCurve

More from @MaxCRoser see all

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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
👉Here you find our up to date statistics until now OurWorldInData.org/Coronavirus
––––

👇 Below you find my thoughts on what’s ahead: two possible futures.

Very different futures.

Let’s call it Pandemics, Fast and Slow
The COVID19 pandemic has begun, how it ends is now in all of our hands.

These early days are the most important days, because how a pandemic ends depends on how it begins.
Why are these days so important?

And what can we all – including you and me – do?
Read 33 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
1/ Many of you ask me why I take the COVID-19 outbreak so seriously.

Current numbers of cases and deaths are *not* why.

👇 A thread on why I’m worried and what I do personally in this situation.
2/ What concerns me is the *growth rate* of cases & deaths in countries that do not have containment measures in place.

The doubling time is the metric I am focusing on now in our work
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Outside of China the number of confirmed cases doubled every 4 days.
3/ Concerns for my personal health are not why I am worried.

I think there is a good chance I might get sick with it one day.
But I am fortunately not that old and I am healthy.

I worry for others and about the possibly large effect of this outbreak on the economy.
Read 9 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
Our mission is to provide the data and research to make progress against the world’s largest problems: OurWorldInData.org/About

What are the world’s largest problems?
This week I thought I do a thread on all the global problems we research; starting with health. ↓↓
• Globally 3.9% of all newborns die in the first 5 years of their life.
• This means that 5.5 million children die per year.

Why are children dying and what can be done to prevent it?
→ Our research on Child & Infant Mortality OurWorldInData.org/Child-mortality
• The global average life expectancy is 73 years. The global inequality can be seen in the map below.

When did the average age at which people die increase and how can we make further progress against early death?
→ Our research on life expectancy OurWorldInData.org/Life-expectancy
Read 26 tweets

Related threads

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Mark Shapiro MD
@ETSshow
“Every little effort counts & it matters. We are all in this together”

Epidemiologist @bethlinas is on Explore The Space Podcast talking #epidemiology, the critical need to #FlattenTheCurve, & the aspirational nature of the effort against #COVID19

explorethespaceshow.com/podcasting/bet…
Please amplify @kidney_boy @JJcolemanMD @SashaShillcutt @aetiology @EricTopol @MarkHertling @chrissyfarr @meganranney @jeremyfaust @byrnes22 @DrLindaMD @choo_ek @starstrickenSF @DissanaikeMD @YoniFreedhoff @medpedshosp @NarjustDumaMD @hknightsf @AG_EM33 @AliRaja_MD
Please amplify @AllisonRBond @TomVargheseJr @drmlb @drninashapiro @DrHowardLiu @drjessigold @Inject_Orange @gradydoctor @ashishkjha @darakass @uche_blackstock @CarlosdelRio7 @DrJenGunter @PeterHotez @KHayhoe @cmclymer @jmugele @drjenniferbest
Read 5 tweets
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moeti damane
@iamSANhedrin
Let us talk about the #FED #FOMC's 1st #MonetaryPolicy meeting of 2020. Specifically, let us talk about the puzzle that is a flatter #PhillipsCurve...
The #FederalOpenMarketCommittee (#FOMC) of the #FederalReserveBank (#FED) of the #US concluded its 1st meeting of 2020 on the 29th January 2020. As expected, the FED did not change rates but left the #KeyPolicyRate, the #FederalFundsRate (#FFR) in the 1.5%-1.75% range...
Indeed, if one considers the #FED #Dotplot of December 2019, the decision to keep rates unchanged would not come as a surprise. What I wanted to focus on today is some key passages in the statement, highlighted in yellow in the screenshot below...its all #PhillipsCurve...
Read 17 tweets
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Joshua
@joshuaseattle
My post on LinkedIn about my interview experience in 1996 @amazon blew up. But a bunch of people asked me why I left after 3 yrs and boomeranged 14 years later. So I thought I’d tell the story here #AWS #amazon #techjobs

linkedin.com/posts/joshuabu…
Everyone assumes that if you’re “successful” by some measure they seen you got there through a series of brilliant chess moves or you were an overnight #success. Occasionally that’s true, but far more often it looks like this
My first 3 years at amazon were amazing. We changed the world of #ecommerce, survived competitive threats that were supposed to kill us, invented lots of 😎 #tech that’s now commonplace in websites. But it was also exhausting. I worked 6-7 days a week, every week for 3 years 😓
Read 17 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, the chart actually shows clear evidence of the beer-wine frontier, with certain types of sprits (e.g. scotch, brandy/cognac) straddling the frontier. 🍺🍷
A few highbrow beers (although there's nothing *truly* highbrow on here) creep over into wineland, but that's sort of what you'd expect.
👏 WINE 👏 TRACK 👏 BEER 👏 TRACK 👏 HAS 👏 BEEN 👏 SCIENTIFICALLY 👏 VALIDATED 👏
Read 3 tweets
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Traders8
@Traders82
#Chapter2 : Trend Trading .

Traders first priority is to take a trade basis the trend. Trend in simple terms means, following the direction of the Market.

Which also means, being with the forces who create the direction, who drive the prices, who move the market, SmartMoney.
What is Smart Money ?

Traders Small or Big who buy or sell in large quantities and have the money power to play with prices by buying or selling at important price points.

They decide if the Price is Undervalued for a Buying Opportunity or Over Valued for Selling Opportunity.
As the Buying or Selling happens in Bulk, their Profitability depends on How far they can push the price, so that they can cover whole of their orders with out loosing much.

They have the power to hold positions and keep rolling it over for Years or Decades if they decide to do.
Read 73 tweets
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mcm-ct.com
@mcm_ct
#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

/2
And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

/3
Read 38 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Chart #Exponential #CloudComputing #Stagflation #ImportantRule #FANG #frugal #Economics #Actually #trades #EMA #RecencyBias #FlattenTheCurve #FederalOpenMarketCommittee #wages #employment #Economists #coronavirus #Nifty #OSINT #YES #flattenthecurve #SocialDistancing #Audacious #EMATradingStrategies

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