The #COVID19 numbers below are not guesses they are clear projections from the data we have today. It will likely shock you. It should not.
1/14
health.gov.au/news/australia…
1/14
health.gov.au/news/australia…
The media will whip it up as surprising and unexpected. It will be portrayed as a worsening and as a deteriorating situation.
2/14
2/14
Politicians will be blamed next week for actions that were not taken the day before to correct the greater than 1000 people that will be testing positive each day in a fortnight.
3/14
3/14
The facts are simple. The evidence from other countries are freely available. It is relatively simple maths.
4/14
4/14
In 14 days there will be between 10-16k COVID19 infected patients in Australia.
5/14
5/14
The infection trajectories for 10-14 days are clear. It is not possible to change these numbers, as infections today will be positive results in roughly 2 weeks. So don’t be surprised.
6/14
6/14
We are tracking low compared to the worse case outcomes seen internationally. This is a comparatively a good thing. But it is all relative.
7/14
7/14
At this rate there will be ~500 patients that will require respirators in 2 weeks. We only have 2000 ICU beds in Australia. Likely thousands others will be hospitalisation.
8/14
8/14
We are not hopeless. This is a controllable outbreak. We need to stop thinking we are trying to protect ourselves from infection.
9/14
9/14
Rather we need to behave as though we are already infected and we need to limit the potential transmission to our colleagues, friends, family and our wider community.
10/14
10/14
This is doable. There are practical steps we can all take. We can all do our part.
11/14
11/14
- Social distancing - if you can afford to, then isolation from contact is great.
- Maintain good hygiene (I am washing hands every time my watch tells me to stand up).
12/14
- Maintain good hygiene (I am washing hands every time my watch tells me to stand up).
12/14
- Prepare your body/physiology for when you do get sick so you don’t get hospitalised.
docs.google.com/document/d/103…
- If you are unwell then go into 14 day quarantine
13/14
docs.google.com/document/d/103…
- If you are unwell then go into 14 day quarantine
13/14
Worry won’t change anything. Positive steps to change behaviour can make an impact. But these changes need to start NOW to impact the numbers in 15 days.
14/14
14/14
If you are looking for a verbose and full data analytics approach that align with my projections please see resources like this. medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
