THREAD: I contributed an essay to the new issue of @TWQgw that weaves together several thoughts I've been trying to develop on formulating a more sustainable U.S. approach to China, and I wanted to outline them in this thread.
cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/blogs.gwu.edu/…
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cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/blogs.gwu.edu/…
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The piece is part of a package, "Decoupling Global Order?", that features an essay by @Joe_Nye and another by @AaronFriedberg and Charles Boustany.
I'm very grateful to @atjlennon for helping me refine my thinking and for permitting me to flesh out my thoughts at length.
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I'm very grateful to @atjlennon for helping me refine my thinking and for permitting me to flesh out my thoughts at length.
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The piece argues that the abstract desire to get tougher on China shouldn't distract from deciding what long-term modus vivendi the United States would like to achieve with its foremost competitor and articulating what strategies it might pursue to get there.
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It also argues that, despite the oft-articulated judgment that there's a new "consensus" on U.S. policy towards China, the national security establishment, the business community, and the public are far from having convergent threat perceptions and policy prescriptions.
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The piece offers two modest proposals. First, the United States should proceed cautiously as it moves away from its erstwhile approach, especially if, as seems evident, it possesses little clarity about the contours of a successor framework.
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Second, while it will invariably and properly have to react to certain expressions of Chinese assertiveness, the United States should focus primarily on stimulating its own renewal.
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The bulk of the piece is devoted to considering four questions that U.S. policymakers should weigh as they refine their thinking about China:
#1: How significantly can the United States influence China's economic development on its own?
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#1: How significantly can the United States influence China's economic development on its own?
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#2: Will middle powers align with the United States in the long term?
#3: How likely is a power transition?
#4: Might China's resurgence catalyze U.S. renewal?
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#3: How likely is a power transition?
#4: Might China's resurgence catalyze U.S. renewal?
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The piece concludes with some thoughts on developing a more competitive U.S. approach.
I drew on the scholarship and journalism of dozens of individuals, and I'd like to acknowledge them here, in the order in which they appear (omitting those I can't find on Twitter):
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I drew on the scholarship and journalism of dozens of individuals, and I'd like to acknowledge them here, in the order in which they appear (omitting those I can't find on Twitter):
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I conclude that while selective, considered decoupling might enhance U.S. competitiveness, America's long-term approach to China should emerge from incremental adjustments and considered objectives, not impulsive recalibrations and abstract exhortations.
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I hope to develop these thoughts further in the coming months. As I do, I'd be very grateful for any and all comments you might have, especially critical ones.
For now, I hope you and yours are all staying safe and healthy in these challenging times.
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For now, I hope you and yours are all staying safe and healthy in these challenging times.
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