The data I'd really, really like to see is the number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations by day in NYC.... how fast is that growing? It is very hard to make reliable inferences solely from the number of positive tests.
Depending on what that growth curve looks like, we could either be heading for Lombardy++, or something more salvageable.
The situation in NYC feels like slamming on the brakes when you've been driving recklessly and realize you're about to collide with a semi-truck. You might stop a few inches short, and incur surprisingly little damage. Or it might a disaster. But you shouldn't be in the position.
And, heck, if we could freeze the moment and look at a bunch of telemetry data and what not, maybe we'd come up with different predictions about what would ultimately happen. It doesn't take away from the fact that we're supposed to leave ourselves a lot more margin for error.
