Thread by @shrikanth_krish

Many people are upset with this Ioannidis piece

Received some feedback that I was wrong to share it

I personally liked it, and still feel it is a necessary corrective to the prevalent discourse, though it is perfectly possible he is underrating the severity of the crisis

I don't believe it is wrong headed at all to emphasize - "We have to get the denominator right"

You cannot justify any set of radical measures until the time we get that right.

Tens of thousands succumb to Flu every year in the US alone, despite the existence and widespread subscription of a Flu vaccine

We don't lose sleep over this terrible fact in part because we are inured to it

Sure. Covid likely is a LOT deadlier.

But maybe it isn't! You have to get the denominator right to comment either way

Two arguments against what I mentioned -

1. Arre...Flu is a known devil. We have a vaccine. We also have herd immunity against it

Malum hai sir. Yet tens of thousands do die in US alone. Even with Flu, we don't know the denominator. Because most people affected don't get tested

Earlier in January, I had the most abominable cough/cold

It lasted 3 weeks and severely hampered me at workplace

Yet I didn't visit a doctor. So I don't know if it was -

a. Some Common cold virus
b. Bacterial infection
c. Influenza
d. Something else?

I simply don't know!

I did consume anti-biotics. Not sure if I recovered because of them, or whether it ran its due course, and I recovered naturally

Again I don't know

This is the problem I want to emphasize

These are no doubt potentially deadly infections. Maybe Covid is a LOT deadlier than the colds / flus we have all grown up with

But in all cases, we don't know the denominator too precisely

Given that Covid is unknown AND new, it makes sense to exercise extra caution

Yes

But at the same time, not position it as a devastating disease of the century

There is a second argument against what Ioannidis talks about -

2. Mortality rate for Covid is skewed. Elderly are badly affected

Again, we are influenced by Italy numbers. Other countries give a different picture. Germany for instance

Plus this is by no means a "death sentence" for the elderly

From the figures I've seen from China / SK (I don't recall which), even among those infected in the 80+ category, mortality rates < 20%.

So there is an 80% chance that you will survive even if you are 85 years old

There is also this argument that Corona hospitalization rates are very high unlike flu

Sure. But again that's based on the current official denominator estimates

If the # global cases right now is 2MM instead of 250K, you get a much lower hospitalization rate / mortality rate

Alarmists may still have a point about the need for social distancing and caution

All for it, provided we don't lose sight of these points Ioannidis is right to bring up

And also provided we are acutely aware of the costs of social distancing / lock-downs