Thread by @TRBHorseRacing

COVID-19 🇦🇺 Quite a few have asked for an update on my initial table that looks at Aust cases per million population compared to others at the same day. Click below to expand.

See replies in this thread for other data and points to be made. #Covid_19australia

COVID-19 🇦🇺 Our multiplier on the previous data point i.e. day 8 to 10 Aust increased # of cases x1.55 (877 up from 564) & day 10-12 was x1.54 (1353 up from 877). In short, we're tracking similarly to European countries at the same time with an alarming exponential growth rate.

Don't let the reduction in Italy's multiplier provide false comfort. Most underestimate what exponential growth achieves. Italy now @ 59,138. If they increase an average of x 1.2 every 2 days for 10 more days, they'll be at 147,154 cases. They're far from getting on top of things

COVID-19 🇦🇺 If Australia follow a similar curve to Italy, which is not an unrealistic assumption given the implementation of measures to prevent the spread up to now have been "moderate" at best - by the 5th April we will be at approximately 20,000 cases.

COVID-19 🇦🇺 Of course testing rates play a big role in reported figures and that is very hard to get accurate data on for comparison. In the USA, we see obviously poor rates of testing in the early stages, but now as they improve, they're reported cases are doubling every 2 days.

COVID-19 🇦🇺Cases are one thing but the "death rate" will ultimately be the measure. The reality is that it is far too early yet to be drawing any conclusions, especially from an Australia perspective. What is true though is that the more people that get infected - the more deaths

COVID-19 🇦🇺 The Aust Govt strategy is very much: "We can't stop COVID-19, so let's just slow it down a little, flatten the curve and the health care system can cope.... we have to balance the economic cost of lockdowns." That's a massive gamble on their part.... cont.

COVID-19 🇦🇺 The hours of reading I've done on this makes me think that the real danger is if / when a Country's health system is overrun and can't cope with the load. We are seeing that in Italy now. IMO, we shouldn't take too much comfort that our death rate is so low right now.

COVID-19 🇦🇺 Australia has approx 2,300 ICU beds. Latest data shows approx 161,500 ICU cases each year at an average 3.3 days. Back of napkin maths - in a normal year we run at approx 65-70% of ICU capacity. Individual hospitals may be higher... cont.

COVID-19 🇦🇺Forgetting general hospitalisation and the impact on our overloaded health system... we're told approximately 5% of COVID-19 cases require ICU treatment. If we assume that at any one time Aust is at 65% ICU capacity, we have approx 805 beds available.... cont

COVID-19 🇦🇺 If Australia gets to 16,000 cases at an ICU rate of 5%, then those 805 spare beds are suddenly gone. We then have zero ICU capacity and need to create more (which I would assum the Govt is working on.) We could be at 16,000 cases by 5th April.

COVID-19 🇦🇺 What if Australia reaches 30,000 cases? We will need 1,500 ICU beds when we only have 805 spare. What if we get to 50,000 cases? We are 1,695 ICU beds short. The system starts to get overrun. What happens to people needing ICU treatment that don't get it? They die.

COVID-19 🇦🇺 Depending on our growth rate in cases, percentage requiring ICU and the ability to the government to crease extra beds, ventilators etc. it's not unrealistic to think that our hospital system could become overrun in the next 4 to 6 weeks. Hopefully not.

COVID-19 🇦🇺 The other potential tragic side effect that hasn't yet had much air time is the impact on the death rate of people with other health conditions that need hospitalisation and especially ICU treatment.... cont

COVID-19 🇦🇺 If our hospitals & ambulance service is full (let alone overrun) just dealing with COVID-19, what happens to response times and treatment for accident victims? Heart attacks? Others? It's flawed to think COVID won't increase the death rate in thousands of other cases.

COVID-19 🇦🇺The Australian response to stopping the spread so far has been extremely moderate. Currently 1,355 cases, but we have no idea what our curve will look like. Even after lockdown, there's likely still 2-3 weeks of significant exponential growth to come.

COVID-19 🇦🇺If we have another 2-3 wks of exponential growth then the ability of our health system to cope will be at breaking point. It's simple math. Once we reach that point, the health & mortality of every person requiring critical care for any condition will be under threat.

COVID-19 🇦🇺Summary:
👍Aust Govt: We'll just slow it a little - think of the economy.
❌Very little done last 14 days to slow the spread
📈Exponential growth is similar to Europe - more to come
😱Hospital system could be overrun <30 days.
😧That's when the real damage will start

COVID-19 🇦🇺 Following the math of exponential growth & understanding that 30,000 - 50,000 cases will put our hospitals at breaking point, threatening critical care patient survival for ANY health condition - it's clear how much of a massive gamble the Aust Govt strategy is 🤞