Thread by @mac_puck

I am not an epidemiologist.

But the SIR model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) of infection is actually very simple to model in a quick spreadsheet.

Best fit I found was:
Ro = 3
Mortality = 1.0%, avg 18 days.
Infectious period: day 5 to day 10.
First infection: late Jan.

The good news is the Chinese appear to have got the Ro figure to below 1.
Ro = No. of people each infected person infects in a population with no immunity yet.
When Ro goes below 1 the epidemic peters out.

The bad news is our Ro appears to be 3.
If it stays that way this:

If we have an immediate lockdown TODAY and get Ro to below 1, like the Chinese have done, this:

If Johnson had acted on the 15th March (when the scientific backlash forced express.co.uk/news/uk/125547… him to abandon "Herd Immunity") this:

If he had done it on the 5th of March, when he was pursuing "herd immunity" and telling us

we should "take it on the chin"

If he had done it on 28th Feb, the day he visited a Hospital in Kettering and later boasted
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
about shaking hands with corona patients.

If he had done it on 18th Feb, when no less than President Xi of China phoned him personally
chinadailyhk.com/article/121599
and told him EXACTLY what needed to be done.

Johnson, Cummings & Michael "had enough of experts" Gove have blood on their hands. THEY MUST NOT GET AWAY WITH IT!