Nice reality check on the Oxford model. TLDR: Oxford said "NHS tests only show number currently infectious, not recovered/now immune - mebs we are 50% through a benign epidemic, not 0.1% through a deadly one?"
Neat bit of work by @cheianov shows, unfortunately, it just ain't so.
Neat bit of work by @cheianov shows, unfortunately, it just ain't so.
He takes the unknowns - start date and Infection Fatality Rate - out of the issue by plotting predicted proportion currently infected vs proportion not infected yet. Shows that if we are at "50% not infected yet" then far more NHS tests should be saying "currently infectious".
Which is bad news, but good work by @cheianov .
