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This a great summing up, @seandanaher5 , the only thing I would add is my "too many journalists in power" theory.
When you only have a hammer everything looks like a nail.
So a journalist PM solves problems by telling stories (lies).
A Barrister PM will reach for law-making...
China has been led by engineers for the last 30 years:
Jiang Zemin (Electrical Engineer)
Hu Jintao (Water Engineer)
Xi Jinping (Chemical Engineer)
And China's industrial growth and infrastructure development has been extraordinary.

People reach for the tools of their trade....
So Johnson and Gove reach for the lies
Xi has a hospital built in 5 minutes; ventilators, PPE, contact tracing.
What is worse than a journo as PM? A general. You don't want one of those reaching for his familiar tools.

Bet you're thinking "what about Physicists?"
Merkel.
Oh bother. Dropped the link in my first tweet.
Here it is, folks:
Really good summing up.
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Jim Grace
@mac_puck
@jdportes
They are at it again.
Tories & Tory newspapers saying "Covid means grandchildren paying our debts"

I think you should do a thread on the actual numbers.

Eg. "The GFC cost the Gov £1.16Tn (2009 money) that's why we needed Austerity and homelessness and foodbanks"...
But then you dig a bit nao.org.uk/highlights/tax…
and find out the £1.16Tn was mostly guarantees that never got called. The maximum cash outlay was £130Bn. Of which only £20Bn was still outstanding in 2019. Which costs the taxpayer around £150M a year at present 15yr gilt rates.
How much of the Chancellor's £330Bn is, likewise, loan guarantees to allow banks to lend to businesses rather than treasury cash?

OK, I get that tax revenue will drop massively during lockdown, but many economists expect a v-shaped recovery. The Covid shock may ultimately...
Read 6 tweets
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Jim Grace
@mac_puck
Nice reality check on the Oxford model. TLDR: Oxford said "NHS tests only show number currently infectious, not recovered/now immune - mebs we are 50% through a benign epidemic, not 0.1% through a deadly one?"
Neat bit of work by @cheianov shows, unfortunately, it just ain't so.
He takes the unknowns - start date and Infection Fatality Rate - out of the issue by plotting predicted proportion currently infected vs proportion not infected yet. Shows that if we are at "50% not infected yet" then far more NHS tests should be saying "currently infectious".
Which is bad news, but good work by @cheianov .
Read 3 tweets
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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
I am not an epidemiologist.

But the SIR model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) of infection is actually very simple to model in a quick spreadsheet.

Best fit I found was:
Ro = 3
Mortality = 1.0%, avg 18 days.
Infectious period: day 5 to day 10.
First infection: late Jan.
The good news is the Chinese appear to have got the Ro figure to below 1.
Ro = No. of people each infected person infects in a population with no immunity yet.
When Ro goes below 1 the epidemic peters out.

The bad news is our Ro appears to be 3.
If it stays that way this:
If we have an immediate lockdown TODAY and get Ro to below 1, like the Chinese have done, this:
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Abeba Birhane
@Abebab
Artificial Unintelligence: How Computers Misunderstand the World. Meredith #Broussard

#amreading
Captivating and personal opening paragraphs. Gives you insight into the authors background. #Broussard
For youthful idealists of my generation, it was easy to believe that the world we were creating online would be better and more just than the world we already had. #Broussard
Read 19 tweets
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Joel Schafer
@joelschafer
Watching CA, IL, PA, & other states order blanket lockdowns covering the entire state & hearing constant rumors of Gov ordering it here I started wondering if it made sense. So I tweeted this, “exacerbate” is prolly too strong, but I do have doubts (this will be long, sorry)
First, there’s two major examples of effective control of the virus: China & South Korea. They went about things in what looks like very different ways, but if you look at the entirety of their efforts there are a lot of similarities.
Biggest difference, China locked down & South Korea did not. In China, especially in Hubei Province and Wuhan there was a draconian lockdown (welding doors shut & boarding up people in houses) - we all saw the videos of authoritarian power used to its fullest.
Read 24 tweets
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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
@DrDannielle
1) I am going to be a bit critical of @POTUS now.
2) Things are out of hand.
3) It isn’t just the outright threats like the gas-filled van in Baltimore.
Read 26 tweets
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Seth Cotlar
@SethCotlar
"When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail."
Ben Shapiro is that saying, in human form.
Because Ben's answer to everything is "you disagree with me because you're a stupid leftist."
Here's an article on the climate change denying, Iraq War boosting, Rupert Murdoch collaborating, ultra-Thatcherite who big brain Ben just called "on the left." theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
This is a good recent piece by @Joshua_A_Tait comparing Shapiro's role in the contemporary right to Buckley's role in the past. arcdigital.media/the-functions-…
Read 28 tweets
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Paras Chopra
@paraschopra
1/ A thread on COGNITIVE BIASES that lead to POORLY DESIGNED PRODUCTS.

If you are a startup founder, product manager or designer, this thread is for you.
2/ WHAT'S A COGNITIVE BIAS?

I like to define it as: a systematic error in perception due to the environment that one is embedded into.
3/ The word systematic suggests that such kind of errors aren’t due to randomness.

Imagine a cognitive bias to be like being born wearing ROSE TINTED glasses, not ever knowing that these glasses colour your entire world pink and then fighting with everyone who disagrees with you
Read 35 tweets
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Eric Columbus
@EricColumbus
THREAD: Some quick thoughts on today’s DACA announcement, as a lawyer who worked for Obama on DACA issues.
2. I don’t support ending DACA. That said, and setting aside decision to end it (a huge set-aside!), let’s assess *how* they’re doing it.
3. Let’s divide it up into the good, the bad, and the ugly. First, the good.
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