1/ Thread: Are the increases in cases due to expanded testing while infection is going down?
There are definitely higher total confirmed cases of #covid19 due to an expansion on our testing capability.
Many people feel this comprises the bulk of the increase...
There are definitely higher total confirmed cases of #covid19 due to an expansion on our testing capability.
Many people feel this comprises the bulk of the increase...
2/ ... it's certainly possible.
I discuss this in both social media ("Again, as more testing comes online for the US, expect our numbers to jump.") and my recent blog post.
But how much of our current increase is due to testing?
I discuss this in both social media ("Again, as more testing comes online for the US, expect our numbers to jump.") and my recent blog post.
But how much of our current increase is due to testing?
3/ Or to put it another way, is it possible that our testing capacity is going up as our infection rate is leveling off or going down and this is showing an overall increase in the data on net?
Sure -- it's definitely possible and worth considering.
Sure -- it's definitely possible and worth considering.
4/ I mention in my most recent blog post, the real game changer will be "serologic tests" that actually capture the antibodies and thus confirm having gotten the virus already. This combined with surveillance testing will give a much, much clearer picture. cholesterolcode.com/two-weeks-of-c…
5/ But in the mean time, how can we know we are indeed on an upward trend with actual infections, not just total cases?
Certainly two metrics to watch are ICU admissions and mortality.
This is why Attia's video from yesterday was especially concerning.
Certainly two metrics to watch are ICU admissions and mortality.
This is why Attia's video from yesterday was especially concerning.
6/ I've asked doctors recently about ICU admissions and whether there's any "inflation" of the numbers. How likely is it that a doctor would place someone there who didn't need it? The short answer is "very unlikely"-- and indeed, they are very aware of capacity when nearing full
7/ Regarding mortality, indeed, there's almost certainly a lower rate of death due to undiagnosed cases that are either asymptomatic or mild and unreported.
But we can still look at the existing trends of confirmed death by the virus as it correlates with active/closed cases.
But we can still look at the existing trends of confirmed death by the virus as it correlates with active/closed cases.
8/ Ultimately, all these metrics can help provide means of detecting the trend we can't easily see without the widespread testing we are coming up to.
Right now, that trend looks pretty bad to me. But there are many new factors that may be mitigating it soon.
Right now, that trend looks pretty bad to me. But there are many new factors that may be mitigating it soon.
9/ The efforts of recent quarantining throughout the world, reduced international travel, greater social distancing practiced by the populace -- all of these seem (at least anecdotally) to have their own substantial increase which should help put the breaks on this trend...
10/ Unfortunately, these same efforts are putting the breaks on the economy as well, but we'll save that for a separate thread (which I intend to do soon).
11/ My larger point is in absence of wider spread testing, I do think the combination of the above metrics gives a reasonable indicator as to where we're headed and how fast.
Again, as always, we'll get through this. But for now we're working through many difficult choices.
Again, as always, we'll get through this. But for now we're working through many difficult choices.
