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1/ Some #FlattenTheCurve success?

This is my favorite new chart. The Avg Rate of Change worldwide ExC is coming down, although not as fast as we like. I was speculating on this in the last several videos and FWIW, I think might continue further given current lockdown efforts...
2/ Make no mistake, we're still only talking about a reduction in an exponential relationship, not an actual arresting of the effect itself (at least, not yet). But all that said, I certainly consider this better news than watching that Rate at 1.19...
3/ Yes, this is a very top-level view of the data and doesn't get granular on a per-country level, etc. Moreover, there are many other factors that may play into this beyond lockdown efforts.

Let's hope this trend downward continues.
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ #FlattingTheCurve with #COVID19 working?!?

Worldwide rate of change rolling average in days (excluding China):
28 => 1.156
14 => 1.139
7 => 1.119
3 => 1.1

While just a snapshot, this may be very encouraging news with regard to the current trends at a very top level view.
2/ As this rate of change drops -- the time it takes to double total cases *increases*. This is extremely important to understand.

This gives vital time to leaders, manufacturers, and healthcare professionals to mitigate as much as they can...
3/ But more importantly, we're on the right track for more substantial impact.

We want the rate of change to get below 1.0 as soon as possible. At that point, total cases will be dropping, not rising.
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ 🦠🦠#COVID19 / #CORONAVIRUS SURVEY 🦠🦠

Answer as honestly as possible.

Here we go...
2/ Generally speaking, do you feel *your government* is under-reacting, overreacting, or acting appropriately in response to this pandemic?
3/ Generally speaking, do you feel *the media* is under-reacting, overreacting, or acting appropriately in response to this pandemic?
Read 14 tweets
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ Hey video game player / puzzle solvers -- this is real!

"If you like solving puzzles, scientists want your help to start designing potential drugs to combat the coronavirus using a game you can play on your computer."

#covid19 / #coronavirus

smh.com.au/national/this-…
2/ "The citizen-science project, known as Foldit, hopes to start turning designs into actual drugs within a month.

Asking untrained people to design drugs sounds like pie in the sky. But the science behind the project is very real..."
3/ "Foldit is among the world’s most-successful citizen-science projects.

It challenges users to solve 3D puzzles by finding ways to fit complex shapes together, or build their own new shapes – a cross between 3D Tetris and Minecraft."
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
#FlattenTheCurve IN NEW YORK?

The total of new cases in New York the last four days held steady:

4,812 Sat 3/21

5,707 Sun 3/22

4,790 Mon 3/23

5,146 Tuesday 3/24

5,113 Average
2/8 #FlattenTheCurve reached NY the last few days (see above tweet). Considering that many cases appear a week or two after exposure, this means the spread is slowing for over a week which is why it is seen in the data of the last 3-4 days. A week ago Wed, most businesses/shops
3/8 were still open; schools closed 9 days ago Mon, and gatherings above 50 were stopped 10 days ago. The point is that despite not having 7-10 days ago the lockdown levels that we have now, the spread in NY is already slowing for 7-10 days as seen in the flattening of new cases
Read 8 tweets
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Carl T. Bergstrom
@CT_Bergstrom
1. Around the United States today, hospitals are preparing for a surge of #COVID19 patients and suffering shortages of protective equipment, but few if any have reached the point of outright crisis with insufficient capacity to provide adequate care for patients coming in.
2. And yet we see cities and now states taking increasing dramatic action, as just this evening California Gov. @GavinNewsom issued a stay-home order for the entire state.

Isn't that premature? Why not wait before acting so drastically?

It's not premature. Let me explain.
3. The answer is that we need to #FlattenTheCurve *now* because if we wait until our hospitals are full to take strong measures, it will be too late. The #COVID19 #coronavirus epidemic has momentum, and we cannot turn it on a dime.
Read 16 tweets
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Carl T. Bergstrom
@CT_Bergstrom
@Noahpinion @JeanLuc_Lemur @eean @Maxtropolitan The language isn't just sloppy, he's got the core idea downright backwards.

He seems to think that mitigation means that we give up and let the disease spread until we reach herd immunity, while trying to minimize the number of deaths.
@Noahpinion @JeanLuc_Lemur @eean @Maxtropolitan That is not what mitigation means. It means that control measures are non-specific, rather than based on contact tracing etc.

I can—and do—advocate for mitigation as a means of tamping down and hopefully eliminating the pandemic long before we get anywhere near herd immunity.
@Noahpinion @JeanLuc_Lemur @eean @Maxtropolitan Here's the thing about the #FlattenTheCurve argument. Whether the epidemic tails off because you've reached herd immunity or because your control measures tamp out the disease, by flattening the curve early you can avoid massively overtaxing your health care capacity.
Read 9 tweets
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JoiningUnrelatedDots
@Mareeswj
as long as corona virus doesn't cross throat it isn't serious

once it infects lungs, most (except children, pregnant women) develop cytokine storm immune reaction

Old, sick people will suffer. Need lots of Oxygen (ventilators & emergency care etc)

Hope govt paying oxygen bills
#CancelEverythingNow
#FlattenTheCurve

This is doctors in America trying to learn from experience of Italy

#CancelEverythingNow
#FlattenTheCurve

This will impact old people, sick/immune compromised people & vulnerable people without access to medical care

Only preventive option is SOCIAL DISTANCING

Read 36 tweets
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blmohr
@blmohr
1/ [Thread]
Alden Global & Fortress Group: Russian ties to America’s local news
2/ Over the last 15 years, almost 1,800 US newspapers have closed. There are now at least 1,300 US communities with no local news coverage and another 1,450 with only one newspaper. Over that time, investment firms bought up almost 700 hometown newspapers.
tabsoft.co/2AdivKK
3/ One of those firms is Alden Global Capital. It owns Digital First Media (DFM), which currently runs 800 multi-platform products including 57 daily newspapers and more than 100 non-daily publications in 11 states.
bit.ly/2E12FXB
Read 81 tweets
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Traders8
@Traders82
#Chapter2 : Trend Trading .

Traders first priority is to take a trade basis the trend. Trend in simple terms means, following the direction of the Market.

Which also means, being with the forces who create the direction, who drive the prices, who move the market, SmartMoney.
What is Smart Money ?

Traders Small or Big who buy or sell in large quantities and have the money power to play with prices by buying or selling at important price points.

They decide if the Price is Undervalued for a Buying Opportunity or Over Valued for Selling Opportunity.
As the Buying or Selling happens in Bulk, their Profitability depends on How far they can push the price, so that they can cover whole of their orders with out loosing much.

They have the power to hold positions and keep rolling it over for Years or Decades if they decide to do.
Read 73 tweets

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