We might not have the power to control events but we do have the power to be unsurprised by events.
It helps to think in terms of “contingency trees”
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It helps to think in terms of “contingency trees”
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Let’s think ahead as we watch one possible scenario play out.
1. The Covid-19 epidemic worsens.
2. The economy worsens.
3. Human suffering worsens.
4. Fear and social conflict increase.
5. The election approaches.
then:...
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1. The Covid-19 epidemic worsens.
2. The economy worsens.
3. Human suffering worsens.
4. Fear and social conflict increase.
5. The election approaches.
then:...
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...
6. The Storm Troopers are reactivated, both inside and outside the Government
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabte…
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6. The Storm Troopers are reactivated, both inside and outside the Government
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabte…
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This is only one possible path through a contingency tree. Here are suggestions of other paths.
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1. The 2020 Republican convention is scheduled for August. What if it cannot be held because of fear of contagion? What if it is scheduled but a quorum doesn’t attend? Note that the fear will probably persist well after the contagion's peak passes.
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2. Similarly for the Democratic convention in July.
3. Even before August, the President’s favorability numbers might drop to a level that the Republican powers-that-be decide he is not electable. What might they do? Could the party split?
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3. Even before August, the President’s favorability numbers might drop to a level that the Republican powers-that-be decide he is not electable. What might they do? Could the party split?
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