Thread by @econnaturalist

Despite broader adoption of measures to increase social distancing, COVID-19 cases are still mounting rapidly. This has prompted some to call for a return to business as usual. But new evidence shows why such calls are lethally wrongheaded. 1/

For example, analysis of real-time temperature readings from Kinsa’s smart thermometers, in use by millions of Americans scattered across the country, now makes it possible to spot local outbreaks of illness much more quickly than by using standard CDC diagnostic data. 2/

Location-specific data indicate that stay-at-home orders are followed in a matter of days by significant declines elevated temperature readings, a reliable indication of reduced illness transmission. The earlier such measures are adopted, the more quickly contagion declines. 3/

Motivated in part by statements from government officials that COVID-19 was no more dangerous than the flu, many spring-break revelers in Florida earlier this month scoffed at the social distancing admonitions of public health officials. 4/

The spike in atypical fevers in the chart below for the Miami area occurred during this period. And the ensuing steep reduction in such fevers came just days after beach closures and other isolation tactics were enacted by local officials. 5/
techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/kin…

Areas that were quicker to adopt social distancing measures saw earlier reductions in the rate of flu-related illnesses. Atypical fevers in California’s Santa Clara County, for example, have dropped by more than 60 percent since a March 17 order to shelter in place. 6/

"When you shut down schools and businesses, you are breaking the chain of infections," said Kinsa CEO Inder Singh. "The data are showing it is working and the clusters of fever we were seeing are leveling off and diminishing within days." 7/
usatoday.com/story/news/hea…

Those who call for a return to business as usual cite the very real human cost of reduced economic activity. Yet not a single respected professional economist has claimed that the economy would recover more quickly if we abandoned social distancing. On the contrary…8/

… the cost of even a protracted economic slowdown pales in comparison with the cost of a raging pandemic. In Italy, military convoys have been needed to remove bodies that can’t be buried or cremated locally. In Spain, people over 65 are refused treatment and left to die. 9/

Hospitals in New York, now the global epicenter of the pandemic, will be completely overrun in short order unless the speed of transmission is greatly reduced. Here, too, recent data indicate that social distancing is working. 10/

In short, compelling evidence shows that social distancing is essential for controlling the pandemic. Heeding calls for a return to business as usual would not only fail to speed economic recovery, but would also result in countless preventable deaths. PLEASE STAY HOME! 11/