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So let me get this hilarious story straight. NATIXIS.
This bank has a big oil exposure, owns 51% of H2O which sees its funds crash and ofc is Covid exposed like the rest of the world. unsurprisingly the stock crashes.
But wait, what happens mid march ????
Insane rally and epic short squeeze ! Why ? Because of the crash the dividend yield goes to the roof ! And the bank replaces Unibail in a high dividend index, which triggers massive forced... buyers ! (ETF, index funds etc)
But that is not the end of the story. Because dividend yields are calculated based on... expected dividends. And Kaboom on friday the SSM announces a dividend bank for all SSM banks 😂
Unsurprisingly this morning
So basically we got an epic short squeeze based on a inclusion on an index based on a dividend... that will probably never exist 😂
Don't you love efficient markets ?
The reason I'm saying "probably" btw is because the SSM guidance is for banking group and Natixis is part of BPCE ... so there is a small chance they could escape the SSM guidance. That would defeat the spirit of it, but not the letter. Let's see ! Such suspense !!
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JohannesBorgen
@jeuasommenulle
As always, @fwred has the ultimate ECB analysis. "After whatever it takes, #WhateverTheF."

But with a cooler head, I'd like to point up that the package is a disappointment on govies/rates, but it's MASSIVE for banks.
Just the new TLTRO thing is huge: the loan growth benchmark is now 0 (LOL), the amount available is now €2.3tn - and this will be at -0.75% And if you don't know what the do with the cash, depo at -0.5%. U can do the math of this subsidy.
And what about this buffer thing the SSM announced? Pretty sure the algos didn't pick up on that one. But if you add 2.5% (CCB) + 1.5% (average P2G) and multiply by the approx. 20tn€ RWA in the European banking sector...
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JohannesBorgen
@jeuasommenulle
Ok, so the answer seems to be "plenty of people", so here we go. (To any lawyer reading this, please don't sue me if I forget one "allegedly" or two, although I'll try tom remain objective as much as possible.!)
Deutsche Bank was USD correspondent bank for Danske Bank in Estonia. According to the FT, DB did $150bn out of the now famous $230bn dubious flows after JPM (in 2013) and BofA (in 2015) declined to do mire business
Two Swedish banks are in trouble (it's all over the news and supervisors are investigating) for AML issues in Estonia : Swedbank and SEB. In the early 2010s, DB was USD correspondent bank to Swedbank
Read 23 tweets
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JohannesBorgen
@jeuasommenulle
Who am I to say no to @fwred? So here it is!
@fwred The ECB (SSM) just released its annual SREP results. As a reminder, it’s the annual assessment of risks large banks are facing with the corresponding capital requirement add-on (called the “P2R”). Lots of very useful info this year.
@fwred Imho, the big picture is this: NPLs are the worry of the past. Now the SSM will focus on governance, OpRisk and profitability. The profitability issue will obviously feed the thinking on the ECB’s strategic review as <0 rates are a culprit.
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