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"Italy, like any country, cannot keep its economy shut indefinitely. ...Yet the virus hasn’t been defeated, only contained."

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
It may be instructive to compare Italy to the reported slowdown in NYC by an MIT study. It may be that the internal shape of social distancing rather than its gross magnitude is vital, particularly distancing high risk groups of old INSIDE the lockdown.
To use an historical analogy the internal subdivision of ships and their damage control procedures are as important as the interval between the ships themselves.
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
The Coronavirus joins the long list of events no one predicted. Pearl Harbor, the collapse of the USSR, 9/11, 2008, the populist revolt etc. Yet we ruthlessly shrank the design margin confident in the certain future. The greatest of the 7 deadly sins is pride.
There's no easy institutional way to learn humility. Civilizational success creates blind spots. The longer the winning run the bigger the blind arc grows.
"For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeteers, musicians and strange animals from conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments...
Read 5 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
The crystal ball needed cleaning all across the political spectrum. From Feb 10.
That exhortation,made 50 days ago didn't age well. How confident are we that the predictions politicians are making now will be valid 50 days from now?
We are not confident. But it's reasonable to hope they will be increasingly less wrong as they correct their lead. It's better to have leaders who can learn than expect dead on first time out.
Read 3 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
nytimes.com/aponline/2020/…
The undying solidarity of humanity lasted until the toilet paper ran out.
I may be disappointed in humanity but I'm not surprised. At least that's one out of two.
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If you're looking for someone compromised on China, you have this theater and its 'unbreakable friendship.' news.yahoo.com/china-declines…
Xi's latest appearance on a call with Trump this morning is a different story, merely parroting the "People's War" language that state media has orchestrated in recent days
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Daniel Sinclair
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@CDCgov While I wait for more info to develop in the coming days, make sure to follow @JaneLytv's fantastic coverage of the misinformation that is spreading:
@CDCgov @JaneLytv This is absolutely untrue and there is no reporting to validate it. What is happening in Wuhan is not related to a biological weapon, or a human-caused accidental release, and this emergent reporting of a Chinese national being removed from a Canadian lab is in no way related. Image
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Now Japan too 👀 https://t.co/9yeEsUGHDx
It’s probably a good time to remember that the 2002 SARS outbreak killed 774 people across 37 countries and it had a 10% mortality rate. This one looks less deadly, but also looks ripe to — and actively is — going global. on.ft.com/2u6G7zV
Umm, any of y'all have room in your bunker? The Chinese government was withholding the severity of this outbreak & transmission capability, and the number of coronavirus cases has exploded😷
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
The Wuhan coronavirus has reached Thailand, and it is now confirmed to be spreading between people. reuters.com/article/us-chi…
"With Chinese New Year approaching on Jan. 25, when many Chinese tourists visit Thailand, the WHO called on Thai authorities, the public and holidaymakers to be on alert." Eerie timing.
Now Japan too 👀
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
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