The city is doing an unusual 10 a.m. daily COVID-19 briefing. We're expecting major updates. You can watch here:
Toronto's medical officer of health Dr. Eileen de Villa is now updating us. "It has been only 91 days" since we welcomed the new year and 84 days since Toronto Public Health issued first statement on COVID-19 and 50 days since WHO gave disease its name, she notes.
She's reviewing how few cases we had at just the start of March. "COVID-19 has had a dramatic impact on our world and on our city." As of yesterday, Toronto reported 628 confirmed cases and 165 "probable" cases with 65 people in hospital and 33 in ICUs.
In last two weeks, the city has seen a more than 500% increase in cases, de Villa said. "This is not a favourable trajectory." She says she is deeply worried. Though still in a very calm tone, I have not heard her speak like this ever.
De Villa is now going over U.S. stats, including New York. "I realize that I depict a very stark picture here . . . but one that is honest and true and premised on the data that we have in front of us."
De Villa: "Given this is our current situation, it is my belief that we must, we must absolutely implement stronger measures to avoid the type of results that we are seeing in places like New York City. One only has to look at the news to see what is happening there."
De Villa says she will be using every power she has available to her to recommend new measures: First, strengthened case and contact measures. Will issue orders to "emphasize the significance" of self-isolation for those tested positive, suspected cases and close contacts
Second, "enhanced" social distancing measures. Stronger public direction to stay home and only go out for essentials. Daily exercise and walking pets still fine. Must maintain distance from others
(Right now, I don't know how these enhanced measures differ from what's in place today, but we will ask.)
Third, "enhanced" following up for recently arrived travelers. And lastly, greater protections for those most vulnerable - 70+, homeless and long-term care/retirement home residents. It's not clear what those measures are exactly. Stand by.
Oh wow, de Villa says these measures may need to be in place for "up to 12 weeks."
Exactly what some of the enhancements are, besides sticking to strict social distancing, is still unclear. There are lots of reporters on the line to ask Qs so I hope that is clarified ASAP.
A bit more detail from city press release: 
Chart from de Villa's presentation on COVID-19 cases in Toronto:
De Villa talked about businesses staying closed, but when asked she doesn't explain further what if any other businesses should be closed.
I asked de Villa about U.S. modelling yesterday that showed 100,000-240,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 - "sobering statistics," she says. Have heard in recent days of some provincial models on mortality. She won't say what those show.
That acknowledges that that provincial data exists and that de Villa has seen it before announcing these increased measures today. That is something. She says the models are for the province to share.
Here's the early story out of that press conference from @dmrider thestar.com/news/city_hall…
NEW: Earlier, Dr. de Villa acknowledged they've seen provincial models. Coun. Joe Cressy, who chair's city's board of health, tells me they were briefed Saturday on the state of the virus in the city and “potential forecast for the future based on provincial modelling” 1/2
Cressy: "What I can tell you is based on that briefing we believe there is a fierce urgency of now to implement immediate measures if we are going to stop the unnecessary loss of life and preserve the integrity of our healthcare system." Updated story coming 2/2
Updated story: thestar.com/news/city_hall…
Minister of Health @celliottability tells @CityCynthia that "the next several weeks are going to be really critical for us" in flattening curve and not see major increase in cases and death. Ford told @robferguson1 they have seen numbers projected for next weeks. No details.
Elliott, asked again about modelling of projected deaths, reiterates they have been presented with several models but is still refusing to share any numbers.
Ford, pressed on modelling, says we're headed for "turbulent waters" but won't give numbers. He said "the worst case scenario can get bad" and could "create a panic" if the model overestimates. Meanwhile, Toronto has put in place unprecedented measures based on provincial numbers
.@joe_cressy, who was watching the premier's press conference, to me just now: "In order to understand the urgency of this moment, it's critical that the public fully understands the immediate risks at hand. Our collected and united response requires it."
