Thread by @JedKolko

A very short niche thread on the annual benchmark revision to employment, coming on Friday.

1/

While it’s already known that employment is likely to be revised significantly downward through March 2019, there’s some question about later revisions. QCEW data, the basis for benchmark revisions, can help.

2/

QCEW data shows slower employment growth for 2019 Q2 than the jobs report did. Note that I’m comparing seasonally adjusted jobs report (CES) data with my own seasonal adjustment of QCEW data.

3/

That graph still doesn’t correct for differences in QCEW vs CES coverage but does handle the seasonality differences in the series. So, a partial answer. Looks like downward revisions might continue even after Friday’s benchmarking.

4/

Cc @bencasselman @LinkedInEcon @UpdatedPriors @Claudia_Sahm — whose twitter conversation yesterday made me curious about this.

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