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I'm very worried about what this means for the South. But results will be different depending on how many cases they had when they finally took action.…
Ohio set the example for the US. The Governor shut down early (3/23) under intense criticism, and that is slowing spread and likely averting overwhelming ICU admissions and deaths. They'll get through the worst of it this month.
Kentucky closed non-essential businesses later (3/26), but while COVID-19 deaths were still 1/day. So they also look on course to avoiding disaster. But it is likely to take longer for them to get through it. Sticking with the closures this long will be hard.
Tennessee didn't shut down until 3/30, when deaths hit 6/day. They're on path to >100-200 deaths/day vs 15 in KY. ICU bed shortages are projected to be 200% of current capacity.
Alabama's situation scares the hell out of me. Action came late and resources are thin. So cases are projected to exceed ICU bed capacity by 700% in two weeks. They could have 300 deaths a day.
Whatever finger-wagging anyone wants to do, these places have good people who had no choice in these matters. Hard times are upon us. The places that acted ahead of the virus and have resources are going to have to help the ones that didn't.
And finally, let it be noted that -- for all our great public health institutions and resources -- Massachusetts may have acted 3/24 but it was still not nearly early enough. We're on track to exceed our ICU capacity by >300% and reach 50-150 deaths/day.
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